What happened
Energy Trust of Oregon and the gas utility NW Natural offered smart thermostats for $19 to qualifying customers with gas furnaces for the 2014-15 heating season. Qualifying candidates were randomly assigned to buy either a Nest Learning Thermostat or a Honeywell Lyric and install it themselves. About 1,000 randomly chosen customers who were not contacted formed a comparison group. Energy Trust evaluation staff ran the billing analysis, and Apex Analytics and reviewers from DNV-GL and Seventhwave checked it. Apex reported on 1 March 2016 that Nest homes saved about 34 therms a year, about 6% of heating load. Lyric homes used 4-5% more gas for heating. The Nest estimate covered 153 homes, and its 90% confidence interval ran from 13 to 55 therms. An intention-to-treat estimate was not statistically significant. Nest users more often left the occupancy feature on, and their daily adjustments fell more over the season. Energy Trust ran the pilot and commissioned the evaluation. Afterward it offered a smart thermostat incentive for which only the Nest qualified.
Sources
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Evaluation report, by an evaluator that the makers or users commissioned.
Apex Analytics LLC. Energy Trust of Oregon Smart Thermostat Pilot Evaluation. Prepared for Energy Trust of Oregon, 1 March 2016.
The results of this billing analysis show that the Nest thermostat was associated with significant energy savings. It produced about 6% heating load savings (34 therms/year), on average, in gas-heated homes.
Details
AI system
- Workflow
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Participants bought the thermostat for $19 and installed it themselves. The Nest built a schedule from the temperatures that occupants set.
Follow-up
- Conditions for replication
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Occupants leave the occupancy detection feature on. Homes have a gas furnace, Wi-Fi and a smartphone.
Entry details
- Sector
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Energy (residential efficiency).
- Purpose
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Nest Labs built the Nest Learning Thermostat to schedule home heating automatically from the temperatures that occupants choose.
Not yet checked: model, release, provider, role, configuration, inputs and outputs, autonomy, human oversight, beneficiaries, reach, distribution and access, duration, every measurement question, every money question, ownership and control, dependencies, cross-border connections, geopolitical implications, replication attempts, availability, institutional decision, grounds, action and result, success criterion, every evidence question, observed or intended, alternative assessments, related entries, other identifiers, category mappings.
Cite this record
Peter H. Vartanian. (2026). Nest thermostats cut gas heating use in Oregon homes by about 6% (AIBD-0731). Artificial Intelligence Benefits Database, edition of 31 October 2026. https://petervartanian.xyz/aibd/records/AIBD-0731.html (archived at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/AADSII, version 4.0)