Machine translation lifts cross-border sales on eBay

eBay's in-house machine translation, introduced for Latin America in May 2014, raised exports on eBay by 10.9% in the published study and 17.5% to 20.9% in the working paper.

12
Benefit status
Reported
Evidence
Independently studied
Source information as of
Sources
2 publications
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Benefits

Benefit

Raised exports on eBay by 10.9% in the published study

Awaiting review

Outcome identifiers

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Category

Increased Product Revenue

Awaiting review

Status

Reported benefit

Awaiting review

Beneficiary groups

People. Organizations.

Awaiting review

Beneficiaries

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Reach

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Distribution and access

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Duration

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Expected?

Yes

Awaiting review

Costs and harms

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

AI system

System

EBay Machine Translation (eMT), an in-house statistical machine-learning translation system

Awaiting review

Model

This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Release

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Provider

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Role

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Configuration

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Inputs and outputs

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Autonomy

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Workflow

EBay translated buyers' search queries and listing titles automatically, replacing an older machine translation service. The platform already connected sellers and buyers across borders.

Awaiting review

Human oversight

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Relation to AI

A difference-in-differences comparison with countries that did not receive the change isolates the effect of the translation system on exports.

Awaiting review

AI contribution

A difference-in-differences comparison with countries that did not receive the change isolates the effect of the translation system on exports.

Awaiting review

Measurement

Studies

Quasi-experimental. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Study design

Quasi-experimental. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Measurement

Export quantity and revenue from eBay transaction data. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Setting and sample

U.S. Exports on eBay to Latin America and other countries, six and twelve months around the change. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Measures

Export quantity and revenue. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Comparison

Other export destinations on eBay and offline exports. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Results

10.9% more exports (published); 17.5% to 20.9% in quantity and 13.1% to 17% in revenue (working paper). [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Additional value from AI

About a tenth to a fifth more exports over the older machine translation. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Limitations

One platform; nonrandom rollout timing; eBay supplied the data; one author interned at eBay in 2015; the published estimate is smaller than the working paper estimate. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Denominators

Machine-translated listing titles. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Materials for replication

Data not public. [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [2]

Money

Kind of value

The kind of monetary value is unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Amount

The monetary value is not established.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Currency and prices

The currency and price basis are unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Period and unit

The period and unit of the monetary estimate are unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Realization

Whether the monetary value was realized is unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Recipients and payers

The recipients and payers are unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Gross or net

Whether the monetary figure includes costs is unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Included costs

The costs included in the estimate are unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Comparison

The financial comparison is not established.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Method

The method used to calculate monetary value is unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Return and payback

The return on investment or payback period is not established.

Not reviewedUnresolved

People and places

Participants

Developer: eBay. Operator: eBay.

Awaiting review

Jurisdictions

Benefit: eBay marketplace: U.S. Sellers and buyers in Spanish-speaking Latin American countries. Developer: United States. Operator: United States.

Awaiting review

Ownership and control

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Dependencies

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Cross-border connections

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Geopolitical implications

The geopolitical implications are unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Follow-up

Conditions for replication

Language must be a real barrier for the buyers. Translation quality must clear what buyers find usable.

Awaiting review

Replication attempts

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Later findings

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Availability

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Institutional decision

A relevant institutional decision has not been established.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Grounds

The grounds for an institutional decision are unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Action and result

The result of an institutional decision is not established.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Success criterion

The criterion for a successful institutional decision is unclear.

Not reviewedUnresolved

Evidence

Source numbers

AIBD-0670-source-0001–0002

Awaiting review

Citations

Numbered references below.

Awaiting review

Language

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Source relationships

Independent

Awaiting review

Original evidence

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Access and versions

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Supported findings

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Evidence strength

Independently studied. Sources: one independent peer-reviewed study and one independent preprint. The cited evidence includes no finding by a regulator or court. [1] [2]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [1] [2]

Missing evidence

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Grades

Assessed benefits

People. Organizations.

Awaiting review

Depth

People: 1. Organizations: 2.

Awaiting review

Reasons

People: U.S. Sellers sold more to Spanish-speaking buyers after translation. Organizations: Exports on eBay to Spanish-speaking Latin America rose by 10.9% in the published estimate and 17.5% to 20.9% in the working paper.

Awaiting review

Observed or intended

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Rubric

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Assessor and date

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Alternative assessments

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Fill

Independently studied

Awaiting review

Entry details

Kind

The case describes an evaluation or a study. A natural-experiment analysis of a platform rollout. [1]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [1]

Field

E-commerce and international trade.

Awaiting review

Purpose

EMT was built to translate listings for buyers in other languages. More cross-border trade on the platform was that purpose.

Awaiting review

Dates

Source information as of: May 2014. Updated: 29 October 2026.

Awaiting review

Stage

The system was in routine use. EBay rolled the system out across its marketplace. [1]

Fully reviewed

Review date: 29 October 2026.

Sources: [1]

Version

SHA-256: 3ef9820d6c03…

Awaiting review

SHA-256 of the public case, its assessments, and its displayed answers and notes, excluding its own identifier and the derived coverage summary.

References

Other identifiers

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Category mappings

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Citable summary

Unresolved

Not reviewedUnresolved

Revisions

1 revision. Latest: 29 October 2026.

Awaiting review

Sources

  1. Peer-reviewed study Independent author

    Brynjolfsson E, Hui X, Liu M. Does Machine Translation Affect International Trade? Evidence from a Large Digital Platform. Management Science. 2019;65(12):5449-5460. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2019.3388 (publisher abstract as deposited with Crossref).

  2. Preprint Independent author

    Brynjolfsson E, Hui X, Liu M. Does Machine Translation Affect International Trade? Evidence from a Large Digital Platform. NBER Working Paper 24917, August 2018.

Cite this case

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Version 3ef9820d6c03, archived in the edition of 29 October 2026

Benefit marks

Depth

The number and color show the depth of a benefit.

  1. A convenience, or time or money saved.
  2. A measurable improvement in a result or ability.
  3. A lasting change, an ability restored, or a risk removed.
  4. A serious harm averted or a serious condition resolved in time.
  5. A life or livelihood preserved, or a change documented across a population.

Beneficiary

  • Circle: a person
  • Square: an organization
  • Triangle: society

Evidence

  • Solid. A court or regulator found a benefit, or researchers independently studied it.

  • Hatched. Independent reporting.

  • Outline. Claimed by the parties. Only the people or organizations involved, or sources whose independence has not been assessed, support the benefit.

The fill changes with the evidence. The depth color stays the same.

How benefits are assessed