Locust control fed by eLocust3m may have averted USD 1.56 billion

PlantVillage's app, built with FAO in under a month in 2020, gathered 240,000+ records; AI removed unusable data; FAO credits the tech-enabled operation with averting USD 1.56 billion in losses.

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AI system

System

eLocust3m (PlantVillage) with AI data validation feeding FAO's Desert Locust Information Service

Model

Not assessed

Release

Exact release not established.

Application developer

PlantVillage, Pennsylvania State University, with FAO

Role

The software checked submitted photographs and filtered unusable reports before FAO analysis.

Configuration

The deployment used eLocust3M.

Inputs and outputs

Not assessed

Autonomy

Not assessed

Workflow

Scouts and residents sent locust sightings through eLocust3m. PlantVillage’s software removed unusable data. FAO used the reports to direct control teams and aircraft.

Human oversight

Not assessed

Relation to AI

Two AI uses are documented: algorithms that double-check submitted photos (Times) and AI that filters unusable records out of FAO's daily intake (FAO). A Penn State deep-learning soil-moisture model is mentioned by the maker's university. The outcome figures belong to the entire control operation and no source isolates the AI's contribution. FAO is both co-developer and deployer, so its feature is maker-authored. The Times report is independent with named sources (Cressman, Ferrand, Hughes, Jeptoo, Owuor, Craig).

AI contribution

Two AI uses are documented: algorithms that double-check submitted photos (Times) and AI that filters unusable records out of FAO's daily intake (FAO). A Penn State deep-learning soil-moisture model is mentioned by the maker's university. The outcome figures belong to the entire control operation and no source isolates the AI's contribution. FAO is both co-developer and deployer, so its feature is maker-authored. The Times report is independent with named sources (Cressman, Ferrand, Hughes, Jeptoo, Owuor, Craig).

Benefits

Outcome identifiers

Not assessed

Benefit

FAO estimates that the East African control campaign protected food supplies for 36.6 million people. AI helped process locust reports within that wider operation.

Category

Reduced Risk

Status

Not assessed

Beneficiary groups

Society. Organizations. People.

Beneficiaries

FAO’s survey and control teams, and people whose food supplies were threatened by locusts.

Reach

FAO estimates that 36.6 million people benefited from the whole control campaign. The number attributable to AI is not established.

Distribution and access

Not assessed

Duration

Not assessed

Expected?

Yes

Costs and harms

Not assessed

Measurement

Studies

Not assessed

Study design

Not assessed

Measurement

Not assessed

Setting and sample

Not assessed

Measures

Reports received and processed, crop and milk losses estimated to have been avoided, and the number of people whose food supplies were protected.

Comparison

Assumed alternative: no locust control operations in East Africa (FAO's estimate of the losses that the control campaign averted)

Results

Assumed comparison. Reference: loss of 4 million tonnes of cereal and 800 million litres of milk production, USD 1.56 billion in cereal and milk losses. Result: those losses prevented and the food security of 36.6 million people protected.

Additional value from AI

Not assessed

Limitations

FAO’s estimates cover the entire control campaign. They do not isolate the value of AI or document an individual farmer’s outcome.

Denominators

Not assessed

Materials for replication

Not assessed

Money

Kind of value

cereal and milk losses avoided by the locust control operations in East Africa that the app and AI data cleaning fed

Amount

Estimate: USD 1.56 billion

Currency and prices

USD, stated in the source. Nominal source amount; price year not separately stated.

Period and unit

East African response reported May 6, 2021; the amount-specific start date is unstated. Cereal and milk losses avoided across the regional response.

Realization

Retrospective estimate.

Recipients and payers

Recipient: Farmers, livestock keepers, and food consumers in affected East African countries. Payer: Not applicable to avoided production losses.

Gross or net

Estimated gross production losses avoided by the response; response costs are not deducted.

Included costs

Not assessed

Comparison

Estimated losses without the control response; calculation details are not given in this account.

Method

Not assessed

Return and payback

Not assessed

People and places

Participants

Developer: PlantVillage, Pennsylvania State University, with FAO. Operator: FAO Desert Locust Information Service and national locust control operations in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.

Jurisdictions

Developer: United States. Operator: Italy.

Ownership and control

Not assessed

Dependencies

Not assessed

Cross-border connections

Not assessed

Geopolitical implications

Not assessed

Follow-up

Conditions for replication

Scouts need smartphones or satellite devices where networks are unavailable. FAO staff must review reports daily, and control teams and aircraft must be available to act on them.

Replication attempts

2 follow-up entries. Outcome unresolved: 2.

Later findings

15 June 2022. In June 2022 FAO declared the East Africa upsurge over and said it had trained 3,800 people across the region to use applications such as eLocust3 to report locusts.

Availability

Not assessed

Institutional decision

Not assessed

Grounds

Not assessed

Action and result

Not assessed

Success criterion

Not assessed

Evidence

Source numbers

AIBD-0193-source-0001–0004

Citations

Numbered references below.

Language

Not assessed

Source relationships

Developer, Independent

Original evidence

Not assessed

Access and versions

Not assessed

Supported findings

Not assessed

Evidence strength

Not assessed

Missing evidence

Not assessed

Grades

Assessed benefits

Society. Organizations. People.

Depth

Society: 3. Organizations: 2. People: Not assessed.

Reasons

FAO states that the campaign prevented the loss of 4 million metric tons of cereal and 800 million liters of milk. PlantVillage helped FAO process up to 2,500 reports a day, about a quarter of which were initially unusable. The campaign estimates cover many interventions, so they cannot be assigned to AI alone.

Observed or intended

Not assessed

Rubric

Not assessed

Assessor and date

Not assessed

Alternative assessments

Not assessed

Fill

Independently reported

Entry details

Kind

Not assessed

Field

Agriculture / pest early warning. Desert locust control.

Purpose

Collect georeferenced locust sightings from anyone with a smartphone. Automatically check photos and remove unusable records so that FAO can direct survey and control teams.

Dates

Date basis unassessed: 2021 (precision unassessed). Updated: 25 October 2026.

Stage

Not assessed

Version

SHA-256: 7a5092b62a33…

References

Other identifiers

Not assessed

Category mappings

Not assessed

Brief

Not assessed

Revisions

8 revisions. Latest: 25 October 2026.

Sources

  1. News report Independent author

    Nuwer R. As Locusts Swarmed East Africa, This Tech Helped Squash Them. The New York Times, 8 April 2021.

  2. Press release Developer

    FAO. A high-tech response is helping countries win the battle against Desert Locusts. FAO feature story, 6 May 2021.

  3. Press release Developer

    LaJeunesse S. Penn State responds: App aids UN efforts to control Africa's locust infestation. Penn State News, 21 February 2020.

  4. Press release Developer

    FAO. FAO Desert Locust campaign: East Africa upsurge suppressed, Kenya free from Desert Locust. Interview with Cyril Ferrand and Carla Mucavi, FAO newsroom, 15 June 2022.