{"id":"AIBD-1223","title":"MDRC finds that New Jersey's pretrial reform with the Public Safety Assessment cut jail bookings and detention in its first year","summary":"New Jersey replaced money bail with the Public Safety Assessment in 2017. MDRC found that detention after the detention hearing fell to 7.3% of indictable defendants, from a predicted 21.9%.","date_observed":"2017-01-01","date_basis":"event","date_precision":"day","benefit_status":"reported","account":"New Jersey's Criminal Justice Reform took effect on 1 January 2017. It nearly ended money bail and based release on the Public Safety Assessment, a tool from Arnold Ventures that scores nine factors from a person's criminal history. Police use the score when choosing a summons or a warrant, and judges use it with a state decision framework at the first appearance. MDRC evaluated the first year with an interrupted time series on 1,776,181 arrest events from 2009 to 2017. Arnold Ventures, which developed the tool, funded the evaluation. It found that fewer arrest events took place, that police issued more summonses and that more defendants were released without conditions. Among people charged with indictable offenses, 7.3% were detained after the detention hearing against a predicted 21.9%. The Judiciary's 2019 report says that the courts ordered 191 bails among 129,387 eligible defendants since 2017. It says that the jail population fell 6.4% from 2018 to 2019 and that fewer defendants of all races sit in jail. It also reports that Black defendants still made up 55 percent of the jail population in 2019. The reform bundled the tool with other changes, so no source isolates the tool's part.","category":"aggregate result","unexpected":false,"purpose":"Arnold Ventures built the Public Safety Assessment to tell judges a defendant's likelihood of missing court or being charged with a new crime, so that release decisions rest on assessed risk.","system":"Public Safety Assessment (PSA) with New Jersey's decision-making framework","model_version":null,"developer":"Arnold Ventures (Laura and John Arnold Foundation) with a team of experts","deployer":"New Jersey Judiciary (Administrative Office of the Courts) and New Jersey law enforcement","location":"New Jersey, United States","domain":"Criminal justice (pretrial release)","segment":null,"benefit_type":"Reduced Risk","work_activities":["4.A.2.a.1","4.A.4.b.6"],"taxonomy_note":"The good is pretrial liberty for people who would have sat in jail for want of bail, which the type names loosely.","registry_ids":{},"ratings":[{"group":"personal","depth":3,"reason":"A defendant released at the first appearance avoids weeks and months in jail while presumed innocent, which the acting administrative director of the courts calls a life-changing consequence avoided."},{"group":"societal","depth":2,"reason":"Statewide, detention after the detention hearing fell to 7.3% of people charged with indictable offenses against a predicted 21.9%, and the jail population kept falling through 2019."}],"ai_role":{"status":"unassessed","statement":"MDRC measured the whole reform, which bundled the tool with the near end of money bail, speedy trial limits and pretrial monitoring, so the tool's own part is not isolated. The sources describe the tool as nine criminal history factors that produce two risk scores and do not show how the scores were derived from data."},"evidence":[{"kind":"evaluation report","citation":"Anderson C, Redcross C, Valentine E, with Miratrix L (2019). Evaluation of Pretrial Justice System Reforms That Use the Public Safety Assessment: Effects of New Jersey's Criminal Justice Reform. MDRC Center for Criminal Justice Research, November 2019.","title":"Evaluation of Pretrial Justice System Reforms That Use the Public Safety Assessment: Effects of New Jersey's Criminal Justice Reform","url":"https://www.mdrc.org/publication/evaluation-pretrial-justice-system-reforms-use-public-safety-assessment-0","date":"2019-11-01","written_by":"evaluator","quote":"A larger proportion of defendants were released without conditions, and rates of initial booking into jail were lower than predicted given pre-CJR trends."},{"kind":"report","citation":"New Jersey Courts (2020). Criminal Justice Reform: Report to the Governor and the Legislature, Jan. 1 - Dec. 31 2019. Submitted by Glenn A. Grant, Acting Administrative Director of the Courts.","title":"Criminal Justice Reform: Report to the Governor and the Legislature, 2019","url":"https://proddrupal.njcourts.gov/sites/default/files/cjrannualreport2019.pdf","date":null,"written_by":"deployer","quote":"Since January 1, 2017, of 129,387 total eligible defendants, the court ordered a total of 191 bails."},{"kind":"press release","citation":"MDRC (2019). Study Finds New Jersey's Pretrial Reform Shows Early Signs of Wide-Reaching, Positive Impacts on Criminal Justice System. Press release, November 2019.","title":"Study Finds New Jersey's Pretrial Reform Shows Early Signs of Wide-Reaching, Positive Impacts on Criminal Justice System","url":"https://mdrc.org/node/17316","date":"2019-11-01","written_by":"evaluator","quote":"which showed a 43.9 percent reduction in the pretrial jail population from January 2015 to January 2018 with no uptick in pretrial crime rates and continued high court appearance rates."}],"replication":{"produced_by":["The state nearly eliminated money bail and set speedy trial limits in the same reform, so judges had the tool and a framework for release conditions.","Police and courts scored the tool from criminal history data at arrest and at the first appearance."],"must_hold":["The decision framework must turn scores into release recommendations that judges follow.","Pretrial monitoring must keep court appearance and new arrest rates steady, which the Judiciary reports that it did."],"echoes":[]},"paired_incident":null,"headline":"*Public Safety Assessment* replaces money bail across New Jersey","metric":"7.3% of indictable defendants, from a predicted 21.9%","comparator":{"against":"Pre-reform trends projected forward in MDRC's interrupted time series","before":"21.9% of people charged with indictable offenses predicted not released or detained after the detention hearing","after":"7.3% observed in 2017","basis":"measured","quote":"Not released/detained 21.9 7.3 -14.6* -66.7","url":"https://mdrc.org/work/publications/evaluation-pretrial-justice-system-reforms-use-public-safety-assessment-0/file-full"},"later":{"status":"persisted","date":null,"note":"The Judiciary's 2019 report says that the jail population fell a further 6.4% from 2018 to 2019 while court appearance and new charge rates stayed about the same as under bail.","quote":"New Jersey's jail population continues to decline, decreasing 6.4 percent from 2018 to 2019.","url":"https://proddrupal.njcourts.gov/sites/default/files/cjrannualreport2019.pdf"},"learns_from_data":{"value":"not shown","note":"The sources describe nine criminal history factors and two risk scores and do not say how the scores were derived.","quote":"The PSA uses nine factors from an individual's criminal history to produce two risk scores: one representing the likelihood of a new crime being committed, and another representing the likelihood of a failure to appear for future court hearings.","url":"https://www.mdrc.org/publication/evaluation-pretrial-justice-system-reforms-use-public-safety-assessment-0"},"benefit_categories":["liberty_protection"],"scsp_example":"Criminal justice","size":{"reach":{"band":4,"fact":"129,387 defendants were eligible under the reform from January 2017 through 2019, and the courts ordered only 191 bails among them.","quote":"Since January 1, 2017, of 129,387 total eligible defendants, the court ordered a total of 191 bails.","url":"https://proddrupal.njcourts.gov/sites/default/files/cjrannualreport2019.pdf","reason":null},"duration":{"band":3,"fact":"The Judiciary says that release spares low-risk defendants the weeks and months of detention that the old bail system imposed.","quote":"Low-risk defendants who lack the financial resources to post bail are now released back into the community without having to suffer the spiraling, life-changing consequences of being detained for weeks and months while presumed innocent.","url":"https://proddrupal.njcourts.gov/sites/default/files/cjrannualreport2019.pdf","reason":null},"distribution":{"band":3,"fact":"The Judiciary reports fewer jailed defendants of all races than under bail, though Black defendants were still 55 percent of the jail population in 2019.","quote":"The total number of defendants sitting in jail from 2017 through 2019 is far less than it was under the system of bail, and that holds true for defendants of all races.","url":"https://proddrupal.njcourts.gov/sites/default/files/cjrannualreport2019.pdf","reason":null},"frequency":{"band":1,"fact":"A defendant is assessed once per prosecution, at arrest and again at the first court appearance for those booked into jail.","quote":"The PSA is used at two points in New Jersey's pretrial process: (1) at the time of arrest, when a police officer must decide whether to seek a complaint-warrant (which will mean booking the person into jail) or issue a complaint-summons","url":"https://www.mdrc.org/publication/evaluation-pretrial-justice-system-reforms-use-public-safety-assessment-0","reason":null}},"value":null,"developer_country":"United States","deployer_country":"United States","unrated_because":null,"brief_notes":null,"brief":null,"confidence":"claimed","shade":"low","claim_status":"The deployer's account","claim_basis":"Sources: the deployer's report, the evaluators' evaluation report and the evaluators' press release. 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Evaluation of Pretrial Justice System Reforms That Use the Public Safety Assessment: Effects of New Jersey's Criminal Justice Reform. MDRC Center for Criminal Justice Research, November 2019.","title":"Evaluation of Pretrial Justice System Reforms That Use the Public Safety Assessment: Effects of New Jersey's Criminal Justice Reform","url":"https://www.mdrc.org/publication/evaluation-pretrial-justice-system-reforms-use-public-safety-assessment-0","date":"2019-11-01","written_by":"evaluator","quote":"A larger proportion of defendants were released without conditions, and rates of initial booking into jail were lower than predicted given pre-CJR trends."},{"kind":"report","citation":"New Jersey Courts (2020). Criminal Justice Reform: Report to the Governor and the Legislature, Jan. 1 - Dec. 31 2019. Submitted by Glenn A. 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The Judiciary's 2019 report says that the courts ordered 191 bails among 129,387 eligible defendants since 2017. It says that the jail population fell 6.4% from 2018 to 2019 and that fewer defendants of all races sit in jail. It also reports that Black defendants still made up 55 percent of the jail population in 2019. 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It nearly ended money bail and based release on the Public Safety Assessment, a tool from Arnold Ventures that scores nine factors from a person's criminal history. Police use the score when choosing a summons or a warrant, and judges use it with a state decision framework at the first appearance. MDRC evaluated the first year with an interrupted time series on 1,776,181 arrest events from 2009 to 2017. Arnold Ventures, which developed the tool, funded the evaluation. It found that fewer arrest events took place, that police issued more summonses and that more defendants were released without conditions. Among people charged with indictable offenses, 7.3% were detained after the detention hearing against a predicted 21.9%. The Judiciary's 2019 report says that the courts ordered 191 bails among 129,387 eligible defendants since 2017. It says that the jail population fell 6.4% from 2018 to 2019 and that fewer defendants of all races sit in jail. It also reports that Black defendants still made up 55 percent of the jail population in 2019. The reform bundled the tool with other changes, so no source isolates the tool's part.","replication":{"produced_by":["The state nearly eliminated money bail and set speedy trial limits in the same reform, so judges had the tool and a framework for release conditions.","Police and courts scored the tool from criminal history data at arrest and at the first appearance."],"must_hold":["The decision framework must turn scores into release recommendations that judges follow.","Pretrial monitoring must keep court appearance and new arrest rates steady, which the Judiciary reports that it did."],"echoes":[]}}}}}}}
