{"id":"AIBD-1029","title":"Netherlands Court of Audit finds that the Belastingdienst's risk model for VAT refunds doubled the hit rate of the selection rules it replaced","summary":"The Netherlands Court of Audit found that the Belastingdienst's risk model for VAT refund returns raised the hit rate of checks from 17% to 34%.","date_observed":"2019-06-11","date_basis":"source publication","date_precision":"day","benefit_status":"reported","source_collection":null,"source_entry":null,"account":"The Belastingdienst, the Dutch tax and customs administration, uses a risk model to choose which VAT refund returns its inspectors check. The model, which replaced the old selection rules, estimates the chance of an error in every refund return. The Netherlands Court of Audit describes the models that it examined as trained and tested on returns with known check outcomes. Its report went to the House of Representatives on 11 June 2019. The Court found that the hit rate with the new model was higher than with the old rules, at 34% against 17%. It writes that the Belastingdienst can show this with a sample in which the selected returns were checked in full. Inspectors examined 32,000 returns a year in 2014 and 2015 and 40,000 a year with the model. The Belastingdienst estimates that the model brings in €60 million a year in extra revenue. The Court notes that the Belastingdienst had no results yet from measuring extra revenue in practice. It found that the income tax model for entrepreneurs was harder for inspectors to use.","category":"aggregate result","unexpected":false,"purpose":"The Belastingdienst built its risk model for VAT refunds to estimate the chance of an error in every VAT refund return, so that inspectors check the returns with the highest risk.","system":"Risicomodel van teruggave btw (the Belastingdienst's risk model for VAT refund returns)","model_version":null,"developer":"Belastingdienst (Netherlands Tax and Customs Administration)","deployer":"Belastingdienst, for the selection of VAT refund returns for checks by tax inspectors","location":"Netherlands (national)","domain":"Tax compliance","segment":null,"benefit_type":"Improved Task Accuracy","work_activities":["4.A.2.a.3","4.A.2.b.6"],"taxonomy_note":null,"registry_ids":{},"ratings":[{"group":"organizational","depth":2,"reason":"Inspectors found errors in 34% of the VAT refund returns that the model selected, against 17% under the old selection rules."},{"group":"societal","depth":null,"reason":"The €60 million a year in extra revenue is the Belastingdienst's own estimate, with no results yet from measuring extra revenue in practice."}],"ai_role":{"status":"assessed","statement":"The Court compares the hit rate of the model with that of the old selection rules that it replaced, which isolates the model's part in the hit rate. The comparison rests on the Belastingdienst's sample of fully checked returns and spans different years. The Court describes the models as trained and tested on returns with known check outcomes. Its English news release calls the VAT model relatively simple."},"evidence":[{"kind":"audit report","citation":"Algemene Rekenkamer (Netherlands Court of Audit). Datagedreven selectie van aangiften door de Belastingdienst, §2.1.3 Trefkans, p. 10, and Bijlage 1 'Van data naar risicomodel', pp. 28-29. Sent to the House of Representatives on 11 June 2019.","title":"Datagedreven selectie van aangiften door de Belastingdienst","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf","date":"2019-06-11","written_by":"independent","quote":"Wij hebben geconstateerd dat de trefkans bij btw-teruggave met het nieuwe risicomodel groter is dan met het oude model."},{"kind":"press release","citation":"Netherlands Court of Audit. Tax and Customs Administration books good results using risk models to check returns. News item, 11 June 2019.","title":"Tax and Customs Administration books good results using risk models to check returns","url":"https://english.rekenkamer.nl/latest/news/2019/06/11/tax-and-customs-administration-books-good-results-using-risk-models-to-check-returns","date":"2019-06-11","written_by":"independent","quote":"Most errors were detected by a relatively simple model to check VAT refunds. The new approach increased the proportion of returns detected with errors from 17% to 34%, good for additional tax receipts of approximately €60 million a year."}],"replication":{"produced_by":["Inspectors checked the VAT refund returns to which the model gave the highest chance of an error.","The Belastingdienst trained the model on returns whose check outcomes were known and tested it on a separate file.","Selected returns went to a desk check, followed by a books audit where the desk check called for one."],"must_hold":["The Belastingdienst must have returns with known check outcomes, from samples or recent checks, to train and test the model.","Inspectors must have the capacity to check the selected returns, since capacity set how many returns were checked."],"echoes":[]},"paired_incident":null,"headline":"*Risicomodel van teruggave btw* doubles the hit rate of VAT checks","metric":"from 17% to 34%","comparator":{"against":"The old selection rules for VAT refund returns, which the model replaced","before":"De trefkans van het oude model voor btw-teruggave was 17%","after":"met het nieuwe model wordt een trefkans van 34% gehaald","basis":"measured","quote":"De trefkans van het oude model voor btw-teruggave was 17%, met het nieuwe model wordt een trefkans van 34% gehaald.","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf"},"later":null,"value":{"amount":"€ 60 miljoen per jaar","what":"Extra revenue from the new VAT refund model, by the Belastingdienst's estimate","who":"Dutch public purse","estimate":true,"quote":"De Belastingdienst schat de meeropbrengst van het nieuwe model op € 60 miljoen per jaar.","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf"},"developer_country":"Netherlands","deployer_country":"Netherlands","unrated_because":null,"brief_notes":null,"brief":null,"revisions":[{"date":"2026-11-01","change":"Added the record from the finding of the Netherlands Court of Audit (Algemene Rekenkamer).","source":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf","editor":"AIBD"}],"confidence":"found","shade":"high","claim_status":"Found by an auditor","claim_basis":"Sources: one independent audit report and one independent press release. The cited evidence includes no independent study or report.","case_jurisdictions":["Netherlands"],"profile":{"case_id":"AIBD-1029","catalog_version":"1.0.0","source_fingerprint":"8e9e57ef613be1ee9dd45feb86c86764737d3b7d526f221384816fa5b615d890","collection_refs":[{"collection_id":"aibd","version":"2026-10-31"},{"collection_id":"querist","version":"2026-10-25"}],"source_ids":["AIBD-1029-source-0001","AIBD-1029-source-0002"],"families":{"strategic assessments":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"Editorial assignment.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","record_ids":[]},"evaluations":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"Editorial assignment.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","record_ids":[]},"monetary observations":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"text","text":"An existing source-stated monetary observation is present in the original value object."},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["value"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial","record_ids":["AIBD-1029-legacy-value"]},"institutional decisions":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"Editorial assignment.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","record_ids":[]}},"fields":{"actors[]":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"developer":"Belastingdienst (Netherlands Tax and Customs Administration)","deployer":"Belastingdienst, for the selection of VAT refund returns for checks by tax inspectors"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["developer","deployer"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"actors[].ownership_control":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"ai_contribution":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"ai_role":{"status":"assessed","statement":"The Court compares the hit rate of the model with that of the old selection rules that it replaced, which isolates the model's part in the hit rate. The comparison rests on the Belastingdienst's sample of fully checked returns and spans different years. The Court describes the models as trained and tested on returns with known check outcomes. Its English news release calls the VAT model relatively simple."}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["ai_role"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"ai_relationship":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"category":"aggregate result","ai_role":{"status":"assessed","statement":"The Court compares the hit rate of the model with that of the old selection rules that it replaced, which isolates the model's part in the hit rate. The comparison rests on the Belastingdienst's sample of fully checked returns and spans different years. The Court describes the models as trained and tested on returns with known check outcomes. Its English news release calls the VAT model relatively simple."}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["ai_role","category"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"assessments[].alternatives":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"assessments[].assessor_date":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"assessments[].depth":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"ratings":[{"group":"organizational","depth":2,"reason":"Inspectors found errors in 34% of the VAT refund returns that the model selected, against 17% under the old selection rules."},{"group":"societal","reason":"The €60 million a year in extra revenue is the Belastingdienst's own estimate, with no results yet from measuring extra revenue in practice."}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["ratings"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"assessments[].display_confidence":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"structured","data":{"confidence":"high","evidence_word":"found","claim_status":"Found by an auditor","basis":"Sources: one independent audit report and one independent press release. The cited evidence includes no independent study or report.","interpretation":"Existing display rule preserved; the richer outcome-specific confidence question still needs review."}},"provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"assessments[].rationale":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"ratings":[{"group":"organizational","depth":2,"reason":"Inspectors found errors in 34% of the VAT refund returns that the model selected, against 17% under the old selection rules."},{"group":"societal","reason":"The €60 million a year in extra revenue is the Belastingdienst's own estimate, with no results yet from measuring extra revenue in practice."}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["ratings"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"assessments[].rubric_version":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"assessments[].status_basis":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"assessments[].target":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"ratings":[{"group":"organizational","depth":2,"reason":"Inspectors found errors in 34% of the VAT refund returns that the model selected, against 17% under the old selection rules."},{"group":"societal","reason":"The €60 million a year in extra revenue is the Belastingdienst's own estimate, with no results yet from measuring extra revenue in practice."}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["ratings"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"availability":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"brief":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"case_kind":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"case_links[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"claims[].evidence_links":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"claims[].evidence_strength":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"structured","data":{"answer":"Found by an auditor. Sources: one independent audit report and one independent press release. The cited evidence includes no independent study or report.","evidence_word":"found","claim_status":"Found by an auditor"}},"provenance":{"kind":"source_review","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["evidence"],"source_refs":["AIBD-1029-source-0001","AIBD-1029-source-0002"],"reviewed_on":"2026-10-29"},"review_state":"reviewed","coverage":"complete","display":{"answer":"Found by an auditor. Sources: one independent audit report and one independent press release. The cited evidence includes no independent study or report.","inferred":false}},"claims[].missingness":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"claims[].proposition":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"cross_border_flows[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"decisions[].action_outcome":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"institutional decisions"},"decisions[].grounds":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"institutional decisions"},"decisions[].institution_task":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"institutional decisions"},"decisions[].success_criterion":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"institutional decisions"},"deployment_stage":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"structured","data":{"classification":"routine use","answer":"The system was in routine use. The model had replaced the old selection rules and set the 40,000 VAT refund checks of 2018.","scope":"The period and activity described in the case."}},"provenance":{"kind":"source_review","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["account","evidence"],"source_refs":["AIBD-1029-source-0001"],"reviewed_on":"2026-10-29"},"review_state":"reviewed","coverage":"complete","display":{"answer":"The system was in routine use. The model had replaced the old selection rules and set the 40,000 VAT refund checks of 2018.","inferred":false}},"economics[].amount":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"value":{"amount":"€ 60 miljoen per jaar","what":"Extra revenue from the new VAT refund model, by the Belastingdienst's estimate","who":"Dutch public purse","estimate":true,"quote":"De Belastingdienst schat de meeropbrengst van het nieuwe model op € 60 miljoen per jaar.","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf"}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["value"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].costs[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].counterfactual":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].currency_price_basis":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].gross_net":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].measure_type":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"value":{"amount":"€ 60 miljoen per jaar","what":"Extra revenue from the new VAT refund model, by the Belastingdienst's estimate","who":"Dutch public purse","estimate":true,"quote":"De Belastingdienst schat de meeropbrengst van het nieuwe model op € 60 miljoen per jaar.","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf"}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["value"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].period_unit":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].realization":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].recipient_payer":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"value":{"amount":"€ 60 miljoen per jaar","what":"Extra revenue from the new VAT refund model, by the Belastingdienst's estimate","who":"Dutch public purse","estimate":true,"quote":"De Belastingdienst schat de meeropbrengst van het nieuwe model op € 60 miljoen per jaar.","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf"}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["value"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].return_payback":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"economics[].valuation_method":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"evaluations[].ai_uplift":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].comparator":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].design":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].effect":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].exposure":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].id":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].measurement_method":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].metric":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].reproduction_materials":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].setting_sample":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"evaluations[].uncertainty_limitations":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"evaluations"},"external_references[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"follow_up[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"human_oversight":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"id":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"id":"AIBD-1029"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["id"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"infrastructure_dependencies[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].beneficiaries":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].beneficiary_count":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].benefit_type":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"benefit_type":"Improved Task Accuracy"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["benefit_type"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].claim":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"account":"The Belastingdienst, the Dutch tax and customs administration, uses a risk model to choose which VAT refund returns its inspectors check. The model, which replaced the old selection rules, estimates the chance of an error in every refund return. The Netherlands Court of Audit describes the models that it examined as trained and tested on returns with known check outcomes. Its report went to the House of Representatives on 11 June 2019. The Court found that the hit rate with the new model was higher than with the old rules, at 34% against 17%. It writes that the Belastingdienst can show this with a sample in which the selected returns were checked in full. Inspectors examined 32,000 returns a year in 2014 and 2015 and 40,000 a year with the model. The Belastingdienst estimates that the model brings in €60 million a year in extra revenue. The Court notes that the Belastingdienst had no results yet from measuring extra revenue in practice. It found that the income tax model for entrepreneurs was harder for inspectors to use.","benefit_type":"Improved Task Accuracy"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["account","benefit_type"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].distribution":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].duration":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].id":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].stakeholder_group":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"ratings":[{"group":"organizational","depth":2,"reason":"Inspectors found errors in 34% of the VAT refund returns that the model selected, against 17% under the old selection rules."},{"group":"societal","reason":"The €60 million a year in extra revenue is the Belastingdienst's own estimate, with no results yet from measuring extra revenue in practice."}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["ratings"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].status":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"benefit_status":"reported"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["benefit_status"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].tradeoffs":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"outcomes[].unexpected":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"unexpected":false,"purpose":"The Belastingdienst built its risk model for VAT refunds to estimate the chance of an error in every VAT refund return, so that inspectors check the returns with the highest risk."}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["unexpected","purpose"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"places[]":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"location":"Netherlands (national)","developer_country":"Netherlands","deployer_country":"Netherlands"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["location","developer_country","deployer_country"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"purpose":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"purpose":"The Belastingdienst built its risk model for VAT refunds to estimate the chance of an error in every VAT refund return, so that inspectors check the returns with the highest risk."}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["purpose"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"record_dates":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"date_observed":"2019-06-11","date_basis":"source publication","date_precision":"day","revisions":[{"date":"2026-11-01","change":"Added the record from the finding of the Netherlands Court of Audit (Algemene Rekenkamer).","source":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf","editor":"AIBD"}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["date_observed","date_basis","date_precision","revisions"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"replication.attempts[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"replication.conditions":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"replication":{"produced_by":["Inspectors checked the VAT refund returns to which the model gave the highest chance of an error.","The Belastingdienst trained the model on returns whose check outcomes were known and tested it on a separate file.","Selected returns went to a desk check, followed by a books audit where the desk check called for one."],"must_hold":["The Belastingdienst must have returns with known check outcomes, from samples or recent checks, to train and test the model.","Inspectors must have the capacity to check the selected returns, since capacity set how many returns were checked."],"echoes":[]}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["replication"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"revision_history[]":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"revisions":[{"date":"2026-11-01","change":"Added the record from the finding of the Netherlands Court of Audit (Algemene Rekenkamer).","source":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf","editor":"AIBD"}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["revisions"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"sector":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"domain":"Tax compliance"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["domain"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"sources[].access_version":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"sources[].citation_locator":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"evidence":[{"kind":"audit report","citation":"Algemene Rekenkamer (Netherlands Court of Audit). Datagedreven selectie van aangiften door de Belastingdienst, §2.1.3 Trefkans, p. 10, and Bijlage 1 'Van data naar risicomodel', pp. 28-29. Sent to the House of Representatives on 11 June 2019.","title":"Datagedreven selectie van aangiften door de Belastingdienst","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf","date":"2019-06-11","written_by":"independent","quote":"Wij hebben geconstateerd dat de trefkans bij btw-teruggave met het nieuwe risicomodel groter is dan met het oude model."},{"kind":"press release","citation":"Netherlands Court of Audit. Tax and Customs Administration books good results using risk models to check returns. News item, 11 June 2019.","title":"Tax and Customs Administration books good results using risk models to check returns","url":"https://english.rekenkamer.nl/latest/news/2019/06/11/tax-and-customs-administration-books-good-results-using-risk-models-to-check-returns","date":"2019-06-11","written_by":"independent","quote":"Most errors were detected by a relatively simple model to check VAT refunds. The new approach increased the proportion of returns detected with errors from 17% to 34%, good for additional tax receipts of approximately €60 million a year."}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["evidence"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"sources[].id":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"identifiers","identifiers":["AIBD-1029-source-0001","AIBD-1029-source-0002"],"role":"Existing evidence items, in their original order"},"provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"complete"},"sources[].language":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"sources[].relationship":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"evidence":[{"kind":"audit report","citation":"Algemene Rekenkamer (Netherlands Court of Audit). Datagedreven selectie van aangiften door de Belastingdienst, §2.1.3 Trefkans, p. 10, and Bijlage 1 'Van data naar risicomodel', pp. 28-29. Sent to the House of Representatives on 11 June 2019.","title":"Datagedreven selectie van aangiften door de Belastingdienst","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2019/06/11/datagedreven-selectie-van-aangiften-door-de-belastingdienst/Dategedreven+selectie+aangiften+door+Belastingdienst+WR.pdf","date":"2019-06-11","written_by":"independent","quote":"Wij hebben geconstateerd dat de trefkans bij btw-teruggave met het nieuwe risicomodel groter is dan met het oude model."},{"kind":"press release","citation":"Netherlands Court of Audit. Tax and Customs Administration books good results using risk models to check returns. News item, 11 June 2019.","title":"Tax and Customs Administration books good results using risk models to check returns","url":"https://english.rekenkamer.nl/latest/news/2019/06/11/tax-and-customs-administration-books-good-results-using-risk-models-to-check-returns","date":"2019-06-11","written_by":"independent","quote":"Most errors were detected by a relatively simple model to check VAT refunds. The new approach increased the proportion of returns detected with errors from 17% to 34%, good for additional tax receipts of approximately €60 million a year."}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["evidence"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"sources[].upstream_sources":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"strategic_assessments[]":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"strategic assessments"},"summary":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"summary":"The Netherlands Court of Audit found that the Belastingdienst's risk model for VAT refund returns raised the hit rate of checks from 17% to 34%.","account":"The Belastingdienst, the Dutch tax and customs administration, uses a risk model to choose which VAT refund returns its inspectors check. The model, which replaced the old selection rules, estimates the chance of an error in every refund return. The Netherlands Court of Audit describes the models that it examined as trained and tested on returns with known check outcomes. Its report went to the House of Representatives on 11 June 2019. The Court found that the hit rate with the new model was higher than with the old rules, at 34% against 17%. It writes that the Belastingdienst can show this with a sample in which the selected returns were checked in full. Inspectors examined 32,000 returns a year in 2014 and 2015 and 40,000 a year with the model. The Belastingdienst estimates that the model brings in €60 million a year in extra revenue. The Court notes that the Belastingdienst had no results yet from measuring extra revenue in practice. It found that the income tax model for entrepreneurs was harder for inspectors to use."}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["summary","account"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].autonomy_permissions":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].component_role":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].deployment_configuration":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].inputs_outputs":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].model_name":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].model_version":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].product_name":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"system":"Risicomodel van teruggave btw (the Belastingdienst's risk model for VAT refund returns)"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["system"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].provider":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"taxonomy_crosswalks[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"title":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"title":"Netherlands Court of Audit finds that the Belastingdienst's risk model for VAT refunds doubled the hit rate of the selection rules it replaced","headline":"*Risicomodel van teruggave btw* doubles the hit rate of VAT checks"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["title","headline"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"version":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"identifiers","identifiers":["b0ca802f24374e45c1f52dcc577e093625050063992ba218478b9c494632050b"],"role":"SHA-256 of the complete public record and its assessments"},"provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"SHA-256 of the public record, its assessments, and its displayed answers and notes, excluding its own identifier and the derived coverage summary.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"complete"},"workflow":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"account":"The Belastingdienst, the Dutch tax and customs administration, uses a risk model to choose which VAT refund returns its inspectors check. The model, which replaced the old selection rules, estimates the chance of an error in every refund return. The Netherlands Court of Audit describes the models that it examined as trained and tested on returns with known check outcomes. Its report went to the House of Representatives on 11 June 2019. The Court found that the hit rate with the new model was higher than with the old rules, at 34% against 17%. It writes that the Belastingdienst can show this with a sample in which the selected returns were checked in full. Inspectors examined 32,000 returns a year in 2014 and 2015 and 40,000 a year with the model. The Belastingdienst estimates that the model brings in €60 million a year in extra revenue. The Court notes that the Belastingdienst had no results yet from measuring extra revenue in practice. It found that the income tax model for entrepreneurs was harder for inspectors to use.","replication":{"produced_by":["Inspectors checked the VAT refund returns to which the model gave the highest chance of an error.","The Belastingdienst trained the model on returns whose check outcomes were known and tested it on a separate file.","Selected returns went to a desk check, followed by a books audit where the desk check called for one."],"must_hold":["The Belastingdienst must have returns with known check outcomes, from samples or recent checks, to train and test the model.","Inspectors must have the capacity to check the selected returns, since capacity set how many returns were checked."],"echoes":[]}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["account","replication"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"}},"summary":{"total":91,"addressed":91,"known":32,"reviewed":2,"reviewed_complete":2,"reviewed_partial":0,"record_mapped":30,"review_not_assessed":59,"not_assessed":0,"complete":false,"by_state":{"value_present":32,"not_reported":0,"unresolved":59,"not_assessed":0,"not_applicable":0,"withheld":0,"source_unavailable":0}}},"presentation_version":"c2d033ff8fc7d4cf96853449e31876047bcbc6166ca6d2056ca746cd5e3950f4"}