{"id":"AIBD-0924","title":"Rigsrevisionen reports that the Danish Tax Agency's checks of companies flagged by its machine-learning reversal model had a 47% hit rate in 2019","summary":"Rigsrevisionen reports that the Danish Tax Agency checked 74 companies that its machine-learning model flagged in 2019. By preliminary results, the hit rate was 47% and the revenue DKK 5.3 million.","date_observed":"2019-01-01","date_basis":"event","date_precision":"year","benefit_status":"reported","source_collection":null,"source_entry":null,"account":"Danish employers report withheld income tax (A-skat) in the eIndkomst register and can later reverse it. The Danish Tax Agency (Skattestyrelsen) had no separate check of these reversals until 2019, when it introduced a control based on a machine-learning scoring model. The model scores companies from 0 to 1 for fictitious or erroneous reversals. Those at 0.5 or above must be picked for control. In a report of November 2020, Rigsrevisionen, the National Audit Office of Denmark, relays the agency's preliminary results. The model scored 222 companies at 0.5 or above in 2019, about 0.6% of some 39,000 that reversed A-tax. By the end of 2019 the agency had checked 74 of them, with a hit rate of 47% and revenue of DKK 5.3 million. Rigsrevisionen concludes that about half of the companies checked had engaged in misuse or fraud. It notes that the agency had not finished all the checks or evaluated the control. It gives no hit rate for checks without the model. In July 2024 Rigsrevisionen reported that the agency uses a data-mining model to look for possibly unjustified reversals.","category":"aggregate result","unexpected":false,"purpose":"The Danish Tax Agency built the scoring model to find fictitious and erroneous reversals of withheld income tax and to score companies from 0 to 1 for control.","system":"Scoring model based on machine learning (scoringsmodel baseret på machine learning) for reversals of withheld income tax (A-skat) in eIndkomst","model_version":null,"developer":"Skattestyrelsen (Danish Tax Agency)","deployer":"Skattestyrelsen (Danish Tax Agency)","location":"Denmark (national)","domain":"Tax administration","segment":null,"benefit_type":"Improved Task Accuracy","work_activities":["4.A.2.a.3","4.A.2.b.6"],"taxonomy_note":"The good is the hit rate of checks that the model picked. Rigsrevisionen gives no hit rate for checks picked without it, since the agency had no such control before 2019.","registry_ids":{},"ratings":[{"group":"organizational","depth":2,"reason":"By the agency's preliminary results, checks of 74 companies that the model flagged had a hit rate of 47% in the control's first year."},{"group":"societal","depth":1,"reason":"The checks brought in DKK 5.3 million for the state by the end of 2019, a preliminary figure."}],"ai_role":{"status":"unassessed","statement":"Rigsrevisionen relays the agency's preliminary results for checks of companies that the model scored 0.5 or above. It gives no hit rate for reversals checked without the model, since the agency had no separate check of reversals before 2019. The agency then checked 74 of the 222 flagged companies by the end of 2019. The report's glossary defines machine learning as a form of artificial intelligence that finds patterns in large amounts of data and predicts the probability of outcomes."},"evidence":[{"kind":"descriptive report","citation":"Rigsrevisionen (National Audit Office of Denmark). Beretning om Skatteministeriets kontrol med A-skat (beretning nr. 4/2020), signed 12 November 2020 and submitted to the Folketing with the Statsrevisorerne's remarks of 20 November 2020. Chapter 4.3, paragraphs 67-68, printed p. 40 (PDF p. 47). Rigsrevisionen relays the Danish Tax Agency's preliminary results, drawn from the agency's memo on the scoring model and its results by company.","title":"Beretning om Skatteministeriets kontrol med A-skat (beretning nr. 4/2020)","url":"https://rigsrevisionen.dk/Media/D/5/sr0420.pdf","date":"2020-11-20","written_by":"independent","quote":"Ud af de 222 virksomheder med en score på 0,5 eller derover havde Skattestyrelsen ultimo 2019 kontrolleret 74 virksomheder, der samlet havde tilbageført A-skat for 8,5 mio. kr. De foreløbige resultater viste en træfprocent på 47 % og et provenu på 5,3 mio. kr."},{"kind":"descriptive report","citation":"Rigsrevisionen. Opfølgning i sagen om Skatteministeriets kontrol med A-skat (beretning nr. 4/2020). Fortsat notat til Statsrevisorerne, RN 1108/24, 4 July 2024, paragraph 20. Rigsrevisionen relays how the agency describes its data-mining models.","title":"Opfølgning i sagen om Skatteministeriets kontrol med A-skat (beretning nr. 4/2020)","url":"https://rigsrevisionen.dk/Media/638580208027648303/1108-24.pdf","date":"2024-07-04","written_by":"independent","quote":"Den ene model leder efter risikofyldte, positive angivelser af A-skat (fx fiktive indberetninger), mens den anden leder efter negative angivelser, hvor der kan være tale om uberettigede tilbageførsler af A-skat.","supports_benefit":false}],"replication":{"produced_by":["The model scored companies that reversed withheld income tax in eIndkomst on a scale from 0 to 1.","Companies with a score of 0.5 or above had to be picked for control. Those below 0.5 could be picked.","The agency checked the picked companies for fictitious and erroneous reversals."],"must_hold":["The agency must check the companies that the model flags. By the end of 2019 it had checked 74 of the 222.","Misuse or fraud must be present among the flagged reversals. The agency judged that most reversals are ordinary corrections of errors."],"echoes":[]},"paired_incident":null,"headline":"Checks of firms flagged by a Danish tax model find misuse in about half","metric":"the hit rate was 47% and the revenue DKK 5.3 million","comparator":null,"later":{"status":"unknown","date":"2024-07-04","note":"Rigsrevisionen reports that the agency uses two data-mining models to pick declarations for control, one of which looks for possibly unjustified reversals. It gives no results for the models and does not say whether this is the model of 2019.","quote":"Den ene model leder efter risikofyldte, positive angivelser af A-skat (fx fiktive indberetninger), mens den anden leder efter negative angivelser, hvor der kan være tale om uberettigede tilbageførsler af A-skat.","url":"https://rigsrevisionen.dk/Media/638580208027648303/1108-24.pdf"},"value":{"amount":"5,3 mio. kr.","what":"Revenue (provenu) from the agency's checks of 74 companies that the model scored 0.5 or above, by preliminary results at the end of 2019","who":"The Danish state","estimate":false,"quote":"De foreløbige resultater viste en træfprocent på 47 % og et provenu på 5,3 mio. kr.","url":"https://rigsrevisionen.dk/Media/D/5/sr0420.pdf"},"developer_country":"Denmark","deployer_country":"Denmark","unrated_because":null,"brief_notes":null,"brief":null,"revisions":[{"date":"2026-10-31","change":"Added the record from the report of Rigsrevisionen, the National Audit Office of Denmark.","source":"https://rigsrevisionen.dk/Media/D/5/sr0420.pdf","editor":"AIBD"}],"confidence":"reported","shade":"medium","claim_status":"Independently reported","claim_basis":"Sources: two independent descriptive reports. 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