{"id":"AIBD-0917","title":"Netherlands Court of Audit finds that files flagged by UWV's risk scan held three times as much culpable unemployment as random files","summary":"The Netherlands Court of Audit found that UWV caseworkers find three times as much culpable unemployment in files flagged by the agency's risk scan as in a random sample.","date_observed":"2025-05-21","date_basis":"source publication","date_precision":"day","benefit_status":"reported","source_collection":null,"source_entry":null,"account":"UWV, the Dutch employee insurance agency, refuses unemployment benefit to people who lost their jobs through their own fault. Since 2022 its risk scan has estimated the chance of such culpable unemployment in each application, from data such as earlier claims and work history. Flagged files make up 70% of those investigated and a random sample the other 30%. Caseworkers do not know which is which. The Netherlands Court of Audit published its audit on 21 May 2025. It concluded that caseworkers find three times as much culpable unemployment after a flag as in the random sample. In a figure, the Court gives culpable unemployment in 17% of flagged files against 5.5% of random files. It relays UWV's estimate of potential benefits of €29 to €44 million a year, against costs of about €14 million. UWV had expected in 2020 that the scan would need about 145 full-time staff, against at least 1,600 to investigate every application. The Court also found weaknesses in IT management and in informing citizens. It does not name the modeling technique.","category":"aggregate result","unexpected":false,"purpose":"UWV built the Risicoscan Verwijtbare Werkloosheid to flag unemployment benefit applications with a high chance of culpable unemployment for investigation by caseworkers.","system":"Risicoscan Verwijtbare Werkloosheid (risk scan for culpable unemployment)","model_version":null,"developer":"UWV (Uitvoeringsinstituut Werknemersverzekeringen)","deployer":"UWV, for unemployment benefit (WW) applications","location":"Netherlands (national)","domain":"Social security (unemployment benefit control)","segment":null,"benefit_type":"Improved Task Accuracy","work_activities":["4.A.2.a.4","4.A.2.b.6"],"taxonomy_note":null,"registry_ids":{},"ratings":[{"group":"organizational","depth":2,"reason":"Caseworkers found culpable unemployment in 17% of flagged files against 5.5% of random files, with far fewer staff than checking every application would need."},{"group":"personal","depth":1,"reason":"The Court found that the scan made the process less intensive for applicants as well as for UWV, though it gives no measure."}],"ai_role":{"status":"assessed","statement":"The Court compares files that the scan flagged with a random sample that caseworkers handled blind, which isolates the scan's effect on the hit rate. It describes a model that estimates the probability of culpable unemployment from applicants' characteristics, with each variable's contribution justified statistically. It does not name the technique. UWV writes that it checks whether the population used to develop the scan is still representative."},"evidence":[{"kind":"audit report","citation":"Algemene Rekenkamer. Resultaten verantwoordingsonderzoek 2024 ministerie van Sociale Zaken en Werkgelegenheid (XV), Rapport bij het Jaarverslag 2024, §5.1 Algoritme Risicoscan Verwijtbare Werkloosheid bij UWV, pp. 56-59, Figuur 8. Published 21 May 2025.","title":"Resultaten verantwoordingsonderzoek 2024 ministerie van Sociale Zaken en Werkgelegenheid","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2025/05/21/vo-2024-szw/XV+SZW+WR.pdf","date":"2025-05-21","written_by":"independent","quote":"De risicoscan blijkt een effectieve manier om verwijtbare werkloosheid te onderzoeken. Na signalering door de risicoscan vinden behandelaars 3 keer zo veel verwijtbare werkloosheid vergeleken met een willekeurige steekproef."},{"kind":"other","citation":"UWV. Risicoscan Verwijtbare Werkloosheid. Web page on uwv.nl, read on 31 October 2026.","title":"Risicoscan Verwijtbare Werkloosheid","url":"https://www.uwv.nl/nl/over-uwv/algoritmeregister-uwv/risicoscan-verwijtbare-werkloosheid","date":null,"written_by":"deployer","quote":"Zo wordt bijvoorbeeld gecontroleerd of de populatie die bij de ontwikkeling van de risicoscan is gebruikt nog representatief is.","supports_benefit":false}],"replication":{"produced_by":["The scan estimated each application's chance of culpable unemployment from characteristics such as earlier benefit applications and work history.","Caseworkers investigated the flagged files and a 30% random sample, hearing both the applicant and the employer."],"must_hold":["Caseworkers must not know whether a file was flagged or drawn at random, which prevents biased assessment.","Each variable must be shown to help predict culpable unemployment, as UWV did to rule out direct discrimination."],"echoes":[]},"paired_incident":null,"headline":"*Risicoscan Verwijtbare Werkloosheid* triples the hit rate of UWV checks","metric":"17% of flagged files against 5.5% of random files","comparator":{"against":"Unemployment benefit applications drawn at random and handled blind by the same caseworkers","before":"In 5,5% van de dossiers is verwijtbare werkloosheid gevonden door behandelaren","after":"In 17% van de dossiers is verwijtbare werkloosheid gevonden door behandelaren","basis":"measured","quote":"Na signalering door de risicoscan vinden behandelaars 3 keer zo veel verwijtbare werkloosheid vergeleken met een willekeurige steekproef.","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2025/05/21/vo-2024-szw/XV+SZW+WR.pdf"},"later":null,"value":{"amount":"tussen de €29 en €44 miljoen per jaar","what":"Potential yearly benefits of working with the risk scan, by UWV's estimate","who":"UWV","estimate":true,"quote":"De schatting van de potentiële baten ligt volgens UWV tussen de €29 en €44 miljoen per jaar, afhankelijk van het aantal aanvragen.","url":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2025/05/21/vo-2024-szw/XV+SZW+WR.pdf"},"developer_country":"Netherlands","deployer_country":"Netherlands","unrated_because":null,"brief_notes":null,"brief":null,"revisions":[{"date":"2026-10-31","change":"Added the record from the finding of the Netherlands Court of Audit.","source":"https://www.rekenkamer.nl/site/binaries/site-content/collections/documents/2025/05/21/vo-2024-szw/XV+SZW+WR.pdf","editor":"AIBD"}],"confidence":"found","shade":"high","claim_status":"Found by an auditor","claim_basis":"Sources: one independent audit report and the deployer's other source. 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