{"id":"AIBD-0840","title":"The UK Covid-19 Inquiry found that QCovid risk data added 1.7 million people to England's Shielded Patient List in February 2021","summary":"The UK Covid-19 Inquiry reports that QCovid data led to 1.7 million more people on England's Shielded Patient List in February 2021. Of those with ethnicity recorded, 36% were non-white.","date_observed":"2021-02-01","date_basis":"event","date_precision":"month","benefit_status":"reported","source_collection":null,"source_entry":null,"account":"In May 2020 Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer for England, commissioned a predictive risk model for Covid-19. The resulting QCovid tool calculated a person's risk of catching Covid-19 and being hospitalized or dying. It took account of age, ethnicity, deprivation, homelessness and sex in addition to clinical conditions. The UK's Chief Medical Officers agreed that QCovid should be used to stratify the population by risk. The UK Covid-19 Inquiry reports that in February 2021 the QCovid data added 1.7 million people to England's Shielded Patient List. Of those with an ethnicity recorded, 36% were non-white, against 17% of the adult population. The Inquiry adds that the tool was validated in the summer of 2021 as performing well in predicting Covid-19 mortality. Wales could not at first identify people automatically, and Scotland did not apply the tool to population records. The Inquiry does not report what shielding changed for the people added.","category":"aggregate result","unexpected":false,"purpose":"University of Oxford researchers built QCovid to estimate an adult's risk of hospital admission or death from Covid-19, using age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index and other conditions.","system":"QCovid risk stratification tool","model_version":null,"developer":"Researchers led from the University of Oxford, using the QResearch database of general practice records","deployer":"NHS England with NHS Digital, which kept the Shielded Patient List in England","location":"England, United Kingdom","domain":"Public health / pandemic risk stratification","segment":null,"benefit_type":"Improved Physical Health","work_activities":["4.A.2.a.4","4.A.2.a.1"],"taxonomy_note":"The good is finding people at high risk so that they receive shielding advice and support. The Inquiry reports no health outcome.","registry_ids":{},"ratings":[{"group":"personal","depth":null,"reason":"The Inquiry does not report what shielding advice or support changed for the 1.7 million people added."},{"group":"societal","depth":2,"reason":"England's shielding list grew by 1.7 million people, with a larger share of non-white people than the adult population."}],"ai_role":{"status":"unassessed","statement":"The Inquiry credits the QCovid data with the expansion without comparing them with other ways of finding people at risk. Its text calls QCovid a predictive risk model and does not say how it was built. The developers' paper says that its risk equations were fitted to the records of 6.08 million adults."},"evidence":[{"kind":"inquiry report","citation":"UK Covid-19 Inquiry (Chair: The Rt Hon the Baroness Hallett DBE). Module 3: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom (HC 1730), ordered to be printed 19 March 2026, paras 3.35-3.38. Accessible PDF with the May 2026 correction slip.","title":"UK Covid-19 Inquiry Module 3: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom","url":"https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/14162519/14.5.26-E03361629_Covid-Inquiry-M3-Inquiry_accessible-w-Corrslip-2.pdf","date":"2026-03-19","written_by":"independent","quote":"In February 2021, the QCovid data resulted in a major expansion of the Shielded Patient List in England, especially of people from ethnic minority backgrounds. An additional 1.7 million people were added to the list"},{"kind":"peer-reviewed study","citation":"Clift AK, Coupland CAC, Keogh RH, et al. Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study. BMJ 2020, 371:m3731.","title":"Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study","url":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3731","date":"2020-10-20","written_by":"makers","quote":"Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables.","supports_benefit":false}],"replication":{"produced_by":["The Chief Medical Officers reviewed early QCovid data and agreed to use the tool.","Records with missing data took the highest-risk ethnicity and a higher than average body mass index as defaults.","NHS England and NHS Digital kept the Shielded Patient List by connecting seven databases."],"must_hold":["Patient records are accurate, complete and coded in enough detail.","Health data can be linked across systems, which Scotland's data structures did not allow."],"echoes":[]},"paired_incident":null,"headline":"*QCovid* adds 1.7 million people to England's shielding list","metric":"1.7 million more people on England's Shielded Patient List","comparator":{"against":"The adult population","before":"17% non-white ethnicity recorded in the adult population","after":"36% were non-white","basis":"measured","quote":"In February 2021, the QCovid data resulted in a major expansion of the Shielded Patient List in England, especially of people from ethnic minority backgrounds. An additional 1.7 million people were added to the list, of which “86% had an ethnicity recorded, of whom 36% were non-white, compared to 17% non-white ethnicity recorded in the adult population”.","url":"https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/14162519/14.5.26-E03361629_Covid-Inquiry-M3-Inquiry_accessible-w-Corrslip-2.pdf"},"later":{"status":"persisted","date":null,"note":"The Inquiry reports that the tool was validated in the summer of 2021 as performing well in predicting Covid-19 mortality.","quote":"The QCovid tool was commended for its focus on addressing inequalities and, in the summer of 2021, it was validated to be performing well in predicting Covid-19 mortality.","url":"https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/14162519/14.5.26-E03361629_Covid-Inquiry-M3-Inquiry_accessible-w-Corrslip-2.pdf"},"value":null,"developer_country":"United Kingdom","deployer_country":"United Kingdom","unrated_because":null,"brief_notes":null,"brief":null,"revisions":[{"date":"2026-10-31","change":"Added the record from the finding of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.","source":"https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/14162519/14.5.26-E03361629_Covid-Inquiry-M3-Inquiry_accessible-w-Corrslip-2.pdf","editor":"AIBD"},{"date":"2026-10-31","change":"Rewrote the prose in plain sentences, with its facts, figures and quotations unchanged.","source":null,"editor":"AIBD"}],"confidence":"found","shade":"high","claim_status":"Found by an inquiry","claim_basis":"Sources: one independent inquiry report and the makers' peer-reviewed study. 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