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Tropical cyclone track and intensity predictions in the western North Pacific basin using Pangu-Weather and JMA initial conditions. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 2025, 103(3):357–370.","title":"Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Predictions in the Western North Pacific Basin Using Pangu-Weather and JMA Initial Conditions","url":"https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/103/3/103_2025-018/_pdf/-char/en","date":"2025-02-27","written_by":"independent","quote":"Results indicate that the ML forecasts exhibit smaller position errors compared to the NWP model, alleviate the westward bias around Japan, and retain its forecast accuracy for TCs with unusual paths"}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["evidence"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"sources[].upstream_sources":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"strategic_assessments[]":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"strategic assessments"},"summary":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"summary":"Run from Japan Meteorological Agency analyses, Pangu-Weather's errors in typhoon position were 8% to 19% smaller than those of JMA's global model. It covered all 64 named storms of 2021 to 2023.","account":"Researchers at the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and three universities tested Pangu-Weather on typhoons in the western North Pacific. They ran Huawei's pretrained model without fine-tuning from the real-time analyses of JMA's Global Spectral Model (GSM). They compared its forecasts of typhoon tracks up to five days ahead for all 64 named typhoons of 2021 to 2023 with the GSM's forecasts from the same analyses. The authors report that Pangu-Weather's mean position errors were smaller at every lead time and that the differences were statistically significant. The improvement was 8%, 19%, 18%, 15% and 9% for one- to five-day forecasts. A five-day run took under a minute on one GPU, against about 19 minutes for the GSM. Intensity errors were larger than the GSM's, and forecast busts such as Typhoon Haikui in 2023 still occurred. The Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan published the study online on 27 February 2025. The authors propose adding the model's tracks to the consensus that underlies JMA's track forecasts."}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["summary","account"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].autonomy_permissions":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].component_role":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].deployment_configuration":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].inputs_outputs":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].model_name":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].model_version":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].product_name":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"system":"Pangu-Weather (PNG-W), run from JMA Global Spectral Model initial conditions"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["system"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].provider":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"taxonomy_crosswalks[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"title":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"title":"JMA researchers find that Pangu-Weather, run from JMA analyses, tracked the 64 named typhoons of 2021 to 2023 more accurately than JMA's global model","headline":"*Pangu-Weather* tracks typhoons better than Japan's global model"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["title","headline"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"version":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"identifiers","identifiers":["b95962298fdff19046f7ab8922cc952410fa674d671fee7d16e7605ad3d9843c"],"role":"SHA-256 of the complete public record and its assessments"},"provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"SHA-256 of the public record, its assessments, and its displayed answers and notes, excluding its own identifier and the derived coverage summary.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"complete"},"workflow":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"account":"Researchers at the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and three universities tested Pangu-Weather on typhoons in the western North Pacific. They ran Huawei's pretrained model without fine-tuning from the real-time analyses of JMA's Global Spectral Model (GSM). They compared its forecasts of typhoon tracks up to five days ahead for all 64 named typhoons of 2021 to 2023 with the GSM's forecasts from the same analyses. The authors report that Pangu-Weather's mean position errors were smaller at every lead time and that the differences were statistically significant. The improvement was 8%, 19%, 18%, 15% and 9% for one- to five-day forecasts. A five-day run took under a minute on one GPU, against about 19 minutes for the GSM. Intensity errors were larger than the GSM's, and forecast busts such as Typhoon Haikui in 2023 still occurred. The Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan published the study online on 27 February 2025. The authors propose adding the model's tracks to the consensus that underlies JMA's track forecasts.","replication":{"produced_by":["The pretrained model ran without fine-tuning from JMA's real-time GSM analyses.","Forecasts from 0000 and 1200 UTC were verified against JMA best tracks up to five days ahead."],"must_hold":["An operational analysis must be available on time to start the model.","Intensity forecasts need other tools, since the model's typhoons were too weak."],"echoes":[]}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["account","replication"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"}},"summary":{"total":91,"addressed":91,"known":28,"reviewed":2,"reviewed_complete":2,"reviewed_partial":0,"record_mapped":26,"review_not_assessed":63,"not_assessed":0,"complete":false,"by_state":{"value_present":28,"not_reported":0,"unresolved":63,"not_assessed":0,"not_applicable":0,"withheld":0,"source_unavailable":0}}},"presentation_version":"e41fb2d0ae9a8421b730c07c4d171efbd5804a22876d9e000e211ba5d085efd7"}