{"id":"AIBD-0757","title":"Typhoon Committee experts find that AI models foresaw where Typhoon Danas would form and turn before physics-based global models did","summary":"In a case study, AI models placed Typhoon Danas's formation and sharp turn toward Taiwan better than physics-based models in forecasts from 30 June to 4 July 2025.","date_observed":"2025-06-30","date_basis":"event","date_precision":"day","benefit_status":"reported","source_collection":null,"source_entry":null,"account":"Severe Typhoon Danas formed over the northern South China Sea and was named early on 5 July 2025. It took an erratic path and turned sharply twice near Taiwan and over the East China Sea. The Typhoon Committee's expert team on AI published a case study in its activity report, dated April 2026, with a figure from the Hong Kong Observatory. It compared forecasts started at 12 UTC from 30 June to 4 July by AI models and by ECMWF, JMA, NCEP and UKMO global models. On 30 June, the AI models sent the future storm into the South China Sea, closer to what happened. The physics-based models sent it across the western North Pacific. From 1 July, most AI models forecast the 90-degree turn toward Taiwan, and the physics-based models caught up on 2 and 3 July. The team concluded that the AI models placed the genesis and early movement of Danas more accurately. The AI tracks of 30 June still pointed toward the western coast of Guangdong, with large errors. 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April 2026, section 3.4, p. 19, Figure 3.4.1 (figure provided by the Hong Kong Observatory).","title":"Annual Operating Plan 13: Promoting Technical Exchange of AI Applications in Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting, Activity Report 2025","url":"https://www.typhooncommittee.org/docs/WGM/WGMAOP13ActivityReport2025.pdf","written_by":"deployer","quote":"In this case, the genesis and movement of Danas were not captured well by the conventional physics-based global NWP models in their medium-range forecasts, while AI models were able to suggest more accurately the genesis position and its earlier movement, highlighting AI models’ value in particular for forecasts of longer lead times."}]}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["evidence"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"sources[].upstream_sources":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"strategic_assessments[]":{"state":"unresolved","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial","family":"strategic assessments"},"summary":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"summary":"In a case study, AI models placed Typhoon Danas's formation and sharp turn toward Taiwan better than physics-based models in forecasts from 30 June to 4 July 2025.","account":"Severe Typhoon Danas formed over the northern South China Sea and was named early on 5 July 2025. It took an erratic path and turned sharply twice near Taiwan and over the East China Sea. The Typhoon Committee's expert team on AI published a case study in its activity report, dated April 2026, with a figure from the Hong Kong Observatory. It compared forecasts started at 12 UTC from 30 June to 4 July by AI models and by ECMWF, JMA, NCEP and UKMO global models. On 30 June, the AI models sent the future storm into the South China Sea, closer to what happened. The physics-based models sent it across the western North Pacific. From 1 July, most AI models forecast the 90-degree turn toward Taiwan, and the physics-based models caught up on 2 and 3 July. The team concluded that the AI models placed the genesis and early movement of Danas more accurately. The AI tracks of 30 June still pointed toward the western coast of Guangdong, with large errors. 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It took an erratic path and turned sharply twice near Taiwan and over the East China Sea. The Typhoon Committee's expert team on AI published a case study in its activity report, dated April 2026, with a figure from the Hong Kong Observatory. It compared forecasts started at 12 UTC from 30 June to 4 July by AI models and by ECMWF, JMA, NCEP and UKMO global models. On 30 June, the AI models sent the future storm into the South China Sea, closer to what happened. The physics-based models sent it across the western North Pacific. From 1 July, most AI models forecast the 90-degree turn toward Taiwan, and the physics-based models caught up on 2 and 3 July. The team concluded that the AI models placed the genesis and early movement of Danas more accurately. The AI tracks of 30 June still pointed toward the western coast of Guangdong, with large errors. This is a single case.","replication":{"produced_by":["AI models and physics-based global models were run from 12 UTC starts each day from 30 June to 4 July 2025.","The team compared pre-genesis and early tracks with the operational analysis positions."],"must_hold":["The pattern holds across many storms, since this is one case.","Forecasters weigh AI tracks together with physics-based guidance."],"echoes":[]}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["account","replication"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"}},"summary":{"total":91,"addressed":91,"known":28,"reviewed":2,"reviewed_complete":2,"reviewed_partial":0,"record_mapped":26,"review_not_assessed":63,"not_assessed":0,"complete":false,"by_state":{"value_present":28,"not_reported":0,"unresolved":63,"not_assessed":0,"not_applicable":0,"withheld":0,"source_unavailable":0}}},"presentation_version":"23005365f3c965c03a96790b284e1fc995b68ca3cb528fab23914b737f880d7f"}