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It was later sold as PredPol, which became Geolitica. CrimeSolutions, the rating service of the National Institute of Justice, rated the program Promising in a profile posted on 28 November 2022. The rating rests on one randomized field trial in three Los Angeles Police Department divisions from November 2011 to January 2013. Each day, a crime analyst and the model both marked 150-by-150-meter boxes for patrol, and a random draw decided which set went to the field. Officers did not know which set they were patrolling. Patrols guided by the model saw an average 7.4 percent reduction in crime volume per thousand minutes of patrol time. The difference was statistically significant. The crimes counted were burglary, car theft and theft from vehicles. George Mohler and colleagues, who published the model in 2011, ran the trial. CrimeSolutions notes that the LAPD no longer has a contract with PredPol."}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["summary","account"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].autonomy_permissions":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].component_role":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].deployment_configuration":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].inputs_outputs":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].model_name":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].model_version":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].product_name":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"system":"Epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) crime forecasting model, known as PredPol (later Geolitica)"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["system"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"systems[].provider":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"taxonomy_crosswalks[]":{"state":"unresolved","provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"reason":"This is an explicit unresolved assignment: the sources on record do not settle this question.","review_state":"not_assessed","coverage":"partial"},"title":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"title":"CrimeSolutions finds that patrols guided by the ETAS crime-forecasting model, later sold as PredPol, cut crime volume in a Los Angeles trial","headline":"*PredPol* maps cut property crime per patrol minute in an LAPD trial"}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["title","headline"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"},"version":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"identifiers","identifiers":["db5be93ba4d4986ff49e2b6e8342ec154a94899e208a3fb619576493f3b43994"],"role":"SHA-256 of the complete public record and its assessments"},"provenance":{"kind":"curatorial","basis":"SHA-256 of the public record, its assessments, and its displayed answers and notes, excluding its own identifier and the derived coverage summary.","record_fields":[],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"complete"},"workflow":{"state":"value_present","value":{"kind":"record_fields","fields":{"account":"The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model forecasts where crime is likely from the date, time, place and type of recent crimes. It was later sold as PredPol, which became Geolitica. CrimeSolutions, the rating service of the National Institute of Justice, rated the program Promising in a profile posted on 28 November 2022. The rating rests on one randomized field trial in three Los Angeles Police Department divisions from November 2011 to January 2013. Each day, a crime analyst and the model both marked 150-by-150-meter boxes for patrol, and a random draw decided which set went to the field. Officers did not know which set they were patrolling. Patrols guided by the model saw an average 7.4 percent reduction in crime volume per thousand minutes of patrol time. The difference was statistically significant. The crimes counted were burglary, car theft and theft from vehicles. George Mohler and colleagues, who published the model in 2011, ran the trial. CrimeSolutions notes that the LAPD no longer has a contract with PredPol.","replication":{"produced_by":["The model was re-estimated each day from the previous 365 days of crime reports.","Patrol officers were directed to spend available time in the top 20 boxes on each shift."],"must_hold":["Recent crime reports reach the model from the department's live records system.","Officers have free time on shift to patrol the boxes."],"echoes":[]}}},"provenance":{"kind":"legacy_record","basis":"Editorial assignment.","record_fields":["account","replication"],"source_refs":[]},"review_state":"record_mapped","coverage":"partial"}},"summary":{"total":91,"addressed":91,"known":30,"reviewed":2,"reviewed_complete":2,"reviewed_partial":0,"record_mapped":28,"review_not_assessed":61,"not_assessed":0,"complete":false,"by_state":{"value_present":30,"not_reported":0,"unresolved":61,"not_assessed":0,"not_applicable":0,"withheld":0,"source_unavailable":0}}},"presentation_version":"e622497005172ed7007e5b65b2e881faed7c7aea429211a786fd2debb4c1e93b"}