{ "id": "AIBD-0354", "title": "UN OCHA's CERF anticipatory action framework for Philippine typhoons adopted 510's machine-learning impact model as trigger in 2021; no activation on that trigger documented to 2025", "summary": "OCHA frameworks (2021, 2023, 2025) use 510's XGBoost house-damage model as activation trigger; near-activation Dec 2021 (Rai); the Nov 2025 activation for Uwan ran on the 185 km/h wind trigger.", "date_observed": "2021-09-15", "date_basis": "unassessed", "date_precision": "unassessed", "benefit_status": null, "source_collection": null, "source_entry": null, "account": "OCHA's Anticipatory Action (AA) Framework for Philippine typhoons was posted on ReliefWeb on 15 September 2021. It set up a US$7.5 million CERF pilot for about 270,500 people in Regions 5 and 8 with FAO, IOM, UNFPA, UNICEF and WFP. It has a two-stage trigger. The readiness trigger is PAGASA and 510 forecasts of a category 4 or stronger cyclone. The activation trigger, within 72 hours of landfall, is the IFRC/Netherlands Red Cross 510 probabilistic typhoon impact prediction model's predicted number of totally damaged houses. The framework says that model partially uses a machine learning model relating wind speed to housing damage. 510's 2024 NHESS paper (vendor-authored) states the XGBoost model served in 2021 as the trigger model for the UN OCHA AA pilot. OCHA's After Action Review of 31 March 2022 records that Typhoon Rai (Odette) in December 2021 rapidly intensified and did not meet the activation criteria. There was a near activation with staff pre-deployed. The 2023 revision retained the 510 model. The framework endorsed on 19 October 2025 covers US$6 million CERF and about 955,507 people in Regions 5, 8 and 13. OCHA and its Centre for Humanitarian Data compute predicted totally damaged buildings with the 510 model every 6–12 hours. It adds an observational trigger for super typhoons of 185 km/h or more reported by PAGASA. OCHA's June 2025 report says the readiness trigger was met for Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) in its November 2024 to April 2025 reporting period. Activation thresholds were not reached and CERF AA resources were reallocated to the response. On 6 November 2025 CERF AA was activated for Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan) after the observational wind-speed threshold was triggered. OCHA reports nearly US$6 million released and WFP alone reaching 42,100 families. No cited document records an activation produced by the 510 model's output.", "category": "general benefit", "unexpected": false, "purpose": "Forecast the number of totally damaged houses from typhoon track, wind and rainfall forecasts so that CERF-funded early actions can be triggered before landfall. The benefit claimed (AI-triggered anticipatory payouts) is that purpose, but no activation on the model's output is documented.", "system": "510 probabilistic typhoon impact model (XGBoost) predicting totally damaged houses, used as the CERF anticipatory action activation trigger", "model_version": "probabilistic version using ECMWF ensemble tracks (revamped from deterministic, 2021)", "developer": "510, an initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross, with IFRC", "deployer": "UN OCHA Philippines with the CERF AA Core Group (FAO, IOM, UNFPA, UNICEF, WFP); impact estimates generated by 510 (2021 framework) and by OCHA with its Centre for Humanitarian Data (2025 framework)", "location": "Philippines (Regions 5, 8 and 13)", "domain": "Humanitarian anticipatory action / typhoon impact forecasting", "segment": "UN-coordinated anticipatory financing (CERF)", "benefit_type": "Improved Knowledge Discovery", "taxonomy_note": "The model supplies impact estimates that decide whether anticipatory funds are released, and no activation attributable to it is documented.", "registry_ids": {}, "ratings": [ { "group": "personal", "depth": null, "reason": "No activation attributable to the model's output is documented, so no individual-level outcome can be assigned to the AI." }, { "group": "organizational", "depth": null, "reason": "OCHA adopted the model as its trigger and computes estimates each cycle. The only documented activation (6 November 2025) was triggered by the observational wind-speed threshold." }, { "group": "societal", "depth": null, "reason": "Pre-landfall assistance in November 2025 (WFP reports 42,100 families) is documented, but not attributed to the AI model by any cited source." } ], "ai_role": { "status": "assessed", "statement": "OCHA's 2021, 2023 and 2025 frameworks name the IFRC/510 impact model as the activation-trigger model. The 2021 framework describes it as partially a machine learning model. This is documented by the deployer, not only the maker. The model's forecasts were monitored during the December 2021 near activation (Typhoon Rai) without meeting criteria. The 2024 readiness phase for Pepito ended with CERF AA resources reallocated to response. OCHA's flash update attributes the 6 November 2025 activation for Uwan to the observational threshold (forecast peak 195 km/h against the 185 km/h trigger). It does not state that the 510 model's estimates reached the activation matrix. The AI's contribution to any payout is therefore not established. The maker's NHESS paper is the only source describing the algorithm (XGBoost)." }, "evidence": [ { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2021). Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Typhoons - 2021-2022. ReliefWeb, posted 15 September 2021 (PDF).", "title": "Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines, 2021-2022", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/anticipatory-action-framework-philippines-2021-2022", "date": "2021-09-15", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "The Model includes a trigger mechanism based on the ECMWF forecast and IFRC/ Netherlands Red Cross 510 probabilistic typhoon impact prediction model developed for the Philippines" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2021). Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Typhoons - 2021-2022, model checklist and model selection sections (PDF).", "title": "Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines, 2021-2022 (model selection)", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/attachments/78d0268e-b476-3a55-ab82-94e7478fc408/Anticipatory%20Action%20Framework%20-%20Philippines%20-%20Typhoons%20-%202021-2022.pdf", "date": "2021-09-15", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "Partially: Uses a machine learning model to determine relationship between wind speed and housing damage." }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA Philippines (2022). Report on the After Action Review for CERF Anticipatory Action, 31 March 2022. ReliefWeb (PDF dated 22 April 2022).", "title": "After Action Review on the CERF Anticipatory Action for Typhoons", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/after-action-review-cerf-anticipatory-action-typhoons", "date": "2022-03-31", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "While the typhoon at the end did not meet the AA pilot activation criteria, the CERF AA Core Group was closely monitoring the situation" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2023). Philippines: CERF AA (Anticipatory Action) Framework, 2023 Revision. unocha.org, 3 October 2023 (PDF).", "title": "Philippines: CERF AA (Anticipatory Action) Framework, 2023 Revision", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/philippines/philippines-cerf-aa-anticipatory-action-framework-2023-revision", "date": "2023-10-03", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "Tropical Cyclone with potential to reach category level 3 or higher" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2025). Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Tropical Cyclones (as of 03 October 2025, endorsed 19 October 2025). ReliefWeb, posted 4 November 2025 (PDF).", "title": "Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Tropical Cyclones (As of 03 October 2025)", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/anticipatory-action-framework-philippines-tropical-cyclones-03-october-2025", "date": "2025-10-19", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "This will be used to compare against 510 model outputs at 72 hours before landfall, in order to account for varying regional vulnerabilities." }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2025). Philippines: Tropical Cyclones Kalmaegi/Tino and Fung-Wong/Uwan - Flash Update No. 1 (as of 07 November, 9 p.m. local time). ReliefWeb.", "title": "Philippines: Tropical Cyclones Kalmaegi/Tino and Fung-Wong/Uwan - Flash Update No. 1", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time", "date": "2025-11-07", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "CERF Anticipatory Action (AA) was activated on 06 November after the observational threshold for Tropical Cyclone Fung-won (Uwan) was triggered" }, { "kind": "press release", "citation": "Paulose, H. (2026). How anticipatory action shaped the response to the Philippines' Twin Typhoons. OCHA Financing and Outreach Division, un.org, January 2026.", "title": "How anticipatory action shaped the response to the Philippines' Twin Typhoons", "url": "https://www.un.org/en/delegate/how-anticipatory-action-shaped-response-philippines%E2%80%99-twin-typhoons", "date": "2026-01-19", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "WFP alone reached 42,100 families through its anticipatory financing mechanism" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2025). Philippines: Multiple Tropical Cyclones: Humanitarian Needs and Priorities - Response Overview Report (November 2024 - April 2025). unocha.org, 27 June 2025.", "title": "Philippines: Multiple Tropical Cyclones: Humanitarian Needs and Priorities - Response Overview Report", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/philippines/philippines-multiple-tropical-cyclones-humanitarian-needs-and-priorities-response-overview-report-november-2024-april-2025", "date": "2025-06-27", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "CERF AA resources were reallocated to support the emergency response following Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi)" }, { "kind": "peer-reviewed study", "citation": "Kooshki Forooshani, M., van den Homberg, M., Kalimeri, K., Kaltenbrunner, A., Mejova, Y., Milano, L., et al. (2024). Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 24, 309-329, 1 February 2024.", "title": "Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones", "url": "https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/309/2024/", "date": "2024-02-01", "written_by": "makers", "quote": "in 2021 as the trigger model for the UN OCHA AA pilot" } ], "replication": { "produced_by": [ "A pre-arranged CERF allocation with agency action plans ready before the typhoon season", "ECMWF ensemble track, wind and rainfall forecasts fed to the 510 impact model every 6–12 hours", "Historical house-damage data linking hazard, vulnerability and exposure to train the model", "A threshold matrix of predicted totally damaged houses per region with a 1-in-3.5-year return period (2025)" ], "must_hold": [ "Forecast lead time of at least 72 hours; rapid intensification (Rai 2021) shortened lead time below the trigger window", "Model impact estimates reaching the regional threshold matrix, which no read activation record documents", "Agency delivery capacity (financial service providers, data-sharing agreements) in the 72 hours before landfall", "PAGASA and ECMWF data availability" ], "echoes": [ { "date": null, "setting": "Typhoon Rai (Odette), December 2021: forecasts monitored, activation criteria not met, staff pre-deployed (near activation)", "model_version": "2021 probabilistic version", "outcome": "did not recur", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/after-action-review-cerf-anticipatory-action-typhoons" }, { "date": null, "setting": "Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi), within OCHA's November 2024 to April 2025 reporting period: readiness trigger met, activation thresholds not reached, CERF AA resources reallocated to emergency response", "model_version": null, "outcome": "did not recur", "source": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/philippines/philippines-multiple-tropical-cyclones-humanitarian-needs-and-priorities-response-overview-report-november-2024-april-2025" }, { "date": "2025-11-06", "setting": "Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan): CERF AA activated on the observational 185 km/h threshold; nearly US$6 million released; WFP reports 42,100 families reached; AI model's role not stated", "model_version": null, "outcome": "unknown", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time" } ] }, "paired_incident": null, "headline": "OCHA uses 510's model as CERF trigger; no activation documented", "metric": null, "comparator": null, "later": { "status": "persisted", "date": "2025-11-06", "note": "The framework stayed in force and CERF anticipatory action was activated for Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan) on 6 November 2025 with nearly US$6 million, but on the observational 185 km/h wind threshold rather than on the 510 model's output.", "quote": "The CERF Anticipatory Action (AA) was activated on 06 November after the observational threshold for Tropical Cyclone Fung-won (Uwan) was triggered. Nearly US$6 million has been allocated to five United Nations agencies to implement AA and early response efforts.", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time" }, "value": null, "developer_country": "Netherlands", "deployer_country": "Philippines", "unrated_because": null, "brief_notes": null, "brief": null, "revisions": [ { "date": "2026-10-20", "change": "Record drafted from the cited sources.", "source": null, "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Added what happened since from the cited sources.", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Country of the developer and the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.", "source": "https://www.rodekruis.nl/contact/; https://www.unocha.org/philippines", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Prose pass: a rating reason, account, purpose, the replication conditions, the system's part rewritten in shorter sentences with abbreviations expanded; facts, figures and quotations unchanged.", "source": null, "editor": "AIBD" } ], "confidence": "claimed", "shade": "low", "claim_status": "The deployer's account", "claim_basis": "Sources: the makers' peer-reviewed study, seven reports from the deployer and the deployer's press release. The cited evidence includes no independent source and no finding by a regulator or court.", "profile": { "case_id": "AIBD-0354", "catalog_version": "1.0.0", "source_fingerprint": "fb2e5c80103070fb65e02114473a292ff7832a3193b97eaae26cfce2e51f4adb", "collection_refs": [ { "collection_id": "aibd", "version": "snapshot-8bf7cfec9cb185aa" }, { "collection_id": "aibd", "version": "2026-10-25" }, { "collection_id": "viator", "version": "2026-10-25" }, { "collection_id": "chanticleer", "version": "2026-10-25" } ], "source_ids": [ "AIBD-0354-source-0001", "AIBD-0354-source-0002", "AIBD-0354-source-0003", "AIBD-0354-source-0004", "AIBD-0354-source-0005", "AIBD-0354-source-0006", "AIBD-0354-source-0007", "AIBD-0354-source-0008", "AIBD-0354-source-0009" ], "families": { "strategic assessments": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "record_ids": [] }, "evaluations": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "record_ids": [] }, "monetary observations": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "record_ids": [] }, "institutional decisions": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "record_ids": [] } }, "fields": { "actors[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "developer": "510, an initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross, with IFRC", "deployer": "UN OCHA Philippines with the CERF AA Core Group (FAO, IOM, UNFPA, UNICEF, WFP); impact estimates generated by 510 (2021 framework) and by OCHA with its Centre for Humanitarian Data (2025 framework)" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "developer", "deployer" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "actors[].ownership_control": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "ai_contribution": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "ai_role": { "status": "assessed", "statement": "OCHA's 2021, 2023 and 2025 frameworks name the IFRC/510 impact model as the activation-trigger model. The 2021 framework describes it as partially a machine learning model. This is documented by the deployer, not only the maker. The model's forecasts were monitored during the December 2021 near activation (Typhoon Rai) without meeting criteria. The 2024 readiness phase for Pepito ended with CERF AA resources reallocated to response. OCHA's flash update attributes the 6 November 2025 activation for Uwan to the observational threshold (forecast peak 195 km/h against the 185 km/h trigger). It does not state that the 510 model's estimates reached the activation matrix. The AI's contribution to any payout is therefore not established. The maker's NHESS paper is the only source describing the algorithm (XGBoost)." } } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "ai_role" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial", "display": { "answer": "OCHA’s frameworks included the 510 model’s forecasts of damage to housing among the conditions for early action before a typhoon.", "editor_note": "" } }, "ai_relationship": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "category": "general benefit", "ai_role": { "status": "assessed", "statement": "OCHA's 2021, 2023 and 2025 frameworks name the IFRC/510 impact model as the activation-trigger model. The 2021 framework describes it as partially a machine learning model. This is documented by the deployer, not only the maker. The model's forecasts were monitored during the December 2021 near activation (Typhoon Rai) without meeting criteria. The 2024 readiness phase for Pepito ended with CERF AA resources reallocated to response. OCHA's flash update attributes the 6 November 2025 activation for Uwan to the observational threshold (forecast peak 195 km/h against the 185 km/h trigger). It does not state that the 510 model's estimates reached the activation matrix. The AI's contribution to any payout is therefore not established. The maker's NHESS paper is the only source describing the algorithm (XGBoost)." } } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "ai_role", "category" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "assessments[].alternatives": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "assessments[].assessor_date": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "assessments[].depth": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "assessments[].display_confidence": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "structured", "data": { "confidence": "low", "evidence_word": "claimed", "claim_status": "The deployer's account", "basis": "Sources: the makers' peer-reviewed study, seven reports from the deployer and the deployer's press release. 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The only documented activation (6 November 2025) was triggered by the observational wind-speed threshold." }, { "group": "societal", "reason": "Pre-landfall assistance in November 2025 (WFP reports 42,100 families) is documented, but not attributed to the AI model by any cited source." } ] } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "ratings" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "assessments[].rubric_version": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "assessments[].status_basis": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "assessments[].target": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "ratings": [ { "group": "personal", "reason": "No activation attributable to the model's output is documented, so no individual-level outcome can be assigned to the AI." }, { "group": "organizational", "reason": "OCHA adopted the model as its trigger and computes estimates each cycle. 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OCHA attributed the November 2025 activation for Typhoon Uwan to a wind-speed threshold, without saying that the model’s damage estimates met the activation criteria.", "editor_note": "" } }, "external_references[]": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "follow_up[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "later": { "status": "persisted", "date": "2025-11-06", "note": "The framework stayed in force and CERF anticipatory action was activated for Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan) on 6 November 2025 with nearly US$6 million, but on the observational 185 km/h wind threshold rather than on the 510 model's output.", "quote": "The CERF Anticipatory Action (AA) was activated on 06 November after the observational threshold for Tropical Cyclone Fung-won (Uwan) was triggered. Nearly US$6 million has been allocated to five United Nations agencies to implement AA and early response efforts.", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time" } } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "later" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "human_oversight": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "id": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "id": "AIBD-0354" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "id" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "infrastructure_dependencies[]": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].beneficiaries": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].beneficiary_count": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].benefit_type": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "benefit_type": "Improved Knowledge Discovery", "taxonomy_note": "The model supplies impact estimates that decide whether anticipatory funds are released, and no activation attributable to it is documented." } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "benefit_type", "taxonomy_note" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].claim": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "account": "OCHA's Anticipatory Action (AA) Framework for Philippine typhoons was posted on ReliefWeb on 15 September 2021. It set up a US$7.5 million CERF pilot for about 270,500 people in Regions 5 and 8 with FAO, IOM, UNFPA, UNICEF and WFP. It has a two-stage trigger. The readiness trigger is PAGASA and 510 forecasts of a category 4 or stronger cyclone. The activation trigger, within 72 hours of landfall, is the IFRC/Netherlands Red Cross 510 probabilistic typhoon impact prediction model's predicted number of totally damaged houses. The framework says that model partially uses a machine learning model relating wind speed to housing damage. 510's 2024 NHESS paper (vendor-authored) states the XGBoost model served in 2021 as the trigger model for the UN OCHA AA pilot. OCHA's After Action Review of 31 March 2022 records that Typhoon Rai (Odette) in December 2021 rapidly intensified and did not meet the activation criteria. There was a near activation with staff pre-deployed. The 2023 revision retained the 510 model. The framework endorsed on 19 October 2025 covers US$6 million CERF and about 955,507 people in Regions 5, 8 and 13. OCHA and its Centre for Humanitarian Data compute predicted totally damaged buildings with the 510 model every 6–12 hours. It adds an observational trigger for super typhoons of 185 km/h or more reported by PAGASA. OCHA's June 2025 report says the readiness trigger was met for Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) in its November 2024 to April 2025 reporting period. Activation thresholds were not reached and CERF AA resources were reallocated to the response. On 6 November 2025 CERF AA was activated for Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan) after the observational wind-speed threshold was triggered. OCHA reports nearly US$6 million released and WFP alone reaching 42,100 families. No cited document records an activation produced by the 510 model's output.", "benefit_type": "Improved Knowledge Discovery" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "account", "benefit_type" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].distribution": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].duration": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].id": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].stakeholder_group": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "ratings": [ { "group": "personal", "reason": "No activation attributable to the model's output is documented, so no individual-level outcome can be assigned to the AI." }, { "group": "organizational", "reason": "OCHA adopted the model as its trigger and computes estimates each cycle. The only documented activation (6 November 2025) was triggered by the observational wind-speed threshold." }, { "group": "societal", "reason": "Pre-landfall assistance in November 2025 (WFP reports 42,100 families) is documented, but not attributed to the AI model by any cited source." } ] } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "ratings" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].status": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].tradeoffs": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].unexpected": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "unexpected": false, "purpose": "Forecast the number of totally damaged houses from typhoon track, wind and rainfall forecasts so that CERF-funded early actions can be triggered before landfall. The benefit claimed (AI-triggered anticipatory payouts) is that purpose, but no activation on the model's output is documented." } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "unexpected", "purpose" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "places[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "location": "Philippines (Regions 5, 8 and 13)", "developer_country": "Netherlands", "deployer_country": "Philippines" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "location", "developer_country", "deployer_country" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "purpose": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "purpose": "Forecast the number of totally damaged houses from typhoon track, wind and rainfall forecasts so that CERF-funded early actions can be triggered before landfall. The benefit claimed (AI-triggered anticipatory payouts) is that purpose, but no activation on the model's output is documented." } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "purpose" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "record_dates": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "date_observed": "2021-09-15", "revisions": [ { "date": "2026-10-20", "change": "Record drafted from the cited sources.", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Added what happened since from the cited sources.", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Country of the developer and the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.", "source": "https://www.rodekruis.nl/contact/; https://www.unocha.org/philippines", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Prose pass: a rating reason, account, purpose, the replication conditions, the system's part rewritten in shorter sentences with abbreviations expanded; facts, figures and quotations unchanged.", "editor": "AIBD" } ] } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "date_observed", "revisions" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "replication.attempts[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "replication": { "produced_by": [ "A pre-arranged CERF allocation with agency action plans ready before the typhoon season", "ECMWF ensemble track, wind and rainfall forecasts fed to the 510 impact model every 6–12 hours", "Historical house-damage data linking hazard, vulnerability and exposure to train the model", "A threshold matrix of predicted totally damaged houses per region with a 1-in-3.5-year return period (2025)" ], "must_hold": [ "Forecast lead time of at least 72 hours; rapid intensification (Rai 2021) shortened lead time below the trigger window", "Model impact estimates reaching the regional threshold matrix, which no read activation record documents", "Agency delivery capacity (financial service providers, data-sharing agreements) in the 72 hours before landfall", "PAGASA and ECMWF data availability" ], "echoes": [ { "setting": "Typhoon Rai (Odette), December 2021: forecasts monitored, activation criteria not met, staff pre-deployed (near activation)", "model_version": "2021 probabilistic version", "outcome": "did not recur", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/after-action-review-cerf-anticipatory-action-typhoons" }, { "setting": "Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi), within OCHA's November 2024 to April 2025 reporting period: readiness trigger met, activation thresholds not reached, CERF AA resources reallocated to emergency response", "outcome": "did not recur", "source": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/philippines/philippines-multiple-tropical-cyclones-humanitarian-needs-and-priorities-response-overview-report-november-2024-april-2025" }, { "date": "2025-11-06", "setting": "Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan): CERF AA activated on the observational 185 km/h threshold; nearly US$6 million released; WFP reports 42,100 families reached; AI model's role not stated", "outcome": "unknown", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time" } ] } } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "replication" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "replication.conditions": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "replication": { "produced_by": [ "A pre-arranged CERF allocation with agency action plans ready before the typhoon season", "ECMWF ensemble track, wind and rainfall forecasts fed to the 510 impact model every 6–12 hours", "Historical house-damage data linking hazard, vulnerability and exposure to train the model", "A threshold matrix of predicted totally damaged houses per region with a 1-in-3.5-year return period (2025)" ], "must_hold": [ "Forecast lead time of at least 72 hours; 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nearly US$6 million released; WFP reports 42,100 families reached; AI model's role not stated", "outcome": "unknown", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time" } ] } } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "replication" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "revision_history[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "revisions": [ { "date": "2026-10-20", "change": "Record drafted from the cited sources.", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Added what happened since from the cited sources.", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Country of the developer and the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.", "source": "https://www.rodekruis.nl/contact/; 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Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Typhoons - 2021-2022. ReliefWeb, posted 15 September 2021 (PDF).", "title": "Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines, 2021-2022", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/anticipatory-action-framework-philippines-2021-2022", "date": "2021-09-15", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "The Model includes a trigger mechanism based on the ECMWF forecast and IFRC/ Netherlands Red Cross 510 probabilistic typhoon impact prediction model developed for the Philippines" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2021). Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Typhoons - 2021-2022, model checklist and model selection sections (PDF).", "title": "Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines, 2021-2022 (model selection)", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/attachments/78d0268e-b476-3a55-ab82-94e7478fc408/Anticipatory%20Action%20Framework%20-%20Philippines%20-%20Typhoons%20-%202021-2022.pdf", "date": "2021-09-15", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "Partially: Uses a machine learning model to determine relationship between wind speed and housing damage." }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA Philippines (2022). Report on the After Action Review for CERF Anticipatory Action, 31 March 2022. ReliefWeb (PDF dated 22 April 2022).", "title": "After Action Review on the CERF Anticipatory Action for Typhoons", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/after-action-review-cerf-anticipatory-action-typhoons", "date": "2022-03-31", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "While the typhoon at the end did not meet the AA pilot activation criteria, the CERF AA Core Group was closely monitoring the situation" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2023). Philippines: CERF AA (Anticipatory Action) Framework, 2023 Revision. unocha.org, 3 October 2023 (PDF).", "title": "Philippines: CERF AA (Anticipatory Action) Framework, 2023 Revision", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/philippines/philippines-cerf-aa-anticipatory-action-framework-2023-revision", "date": "2023-10-03", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "Tropical Cyclone with potential to reach category level 3 or higher" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2025). Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Tropical Cyclones (as of 03 October 2025, endorsed 19 October 2025). ReliefWeb, posted 4 November 2025 (PDF).", "title": "Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Tropical Cyclones (As of 03 October 2025)", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/anticipatory-action-framework-philippines-tropical-cyclones-03-october-2025", "date": "2025-10-19", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "This will be used to compare against 510 model outputs at 72 hours before landfall, in order to account for varying regional vulnerabilities." }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2025). Philippines: Tropical Cyclones Kalmaegi/Tino and Fung-Wong/Uwan - Flash Update No. 1 (as of 07 November, 9 p.m. local time). ReliefWeb.", "title": "Philippines: Tropical Cyclones Kalmaegi/Tino and Fung-Wong/Uwan - Flash Update No. 1", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time", "date": "2025-11-07", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "CERF Anticipatory Action (AA) was activated on 06 November after the observational threshold for Tropical Cyclone Fung-won (Uwan) was triggered" }, { "kind": "press release", "citation": "Paulose, H. (2026). How anticipatory action shaped the response to the Philippines' Twin Typhoons. OCHA Financing and Outreach Division, un.org, January 2026.", "title": "How anticipatory action shaped the response to the Philippines' Twin Typhoons", "url": "https://www.un.org/en/delegate/how-anticipatory-action-shaped-response-philippines%E2%80%99-twin-typhoons", "date": "2026-01-19", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "WFP alone reached 42,100 families through its anticipatory financing mechanism" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2025). Philippines: Multiple Tropical Cyclones: Humanitarian Needs and Priorities - Response Overview Report (November 2024 - April 2025). unocha.org, 27 June 2025.", "title": "Philippines: Multiple Tropical Cyclones: Humanitarian Needs and Priorities - Response Overview Report", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/philippines/philippines-multiple-tropical-cyclones-humanitarian-needs-and-priorities-response-overview-report-november-2024-april-2025", "date": "2025-06-27", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "CERF AA resources were reallocated to support the emergency response following Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi)" }, { "kind": "peer-reviewed study", "citation": "Kooshki Forooshani, M., van den Homberg, M., Kalimeri, K., Kaltenbrunner, A., Mejova, Y., Milano, L., et al. (2024). Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 24, 309-329, 1 February 2024.", "title": "Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones", "url": "https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/309/2024/", "date": "2024-02-01", "written_by": "makers", "quote": "in 2021 as the trigger model for the UN OCHA AA pilot" } ] } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "evidence" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "sources[].id": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "identifiers", "identifiers": [ "AIBD-0354-source-0001", "AIBD-0354-source-0002", "AIBD-0354-source-0003", "AIBD-0354-source-0004", "AIBD-0354-source-0005", "AIBD-0354-source-0006", "AIBD-0354-source-0007", "AIBD-0354-source-0008", "AIBD-0354-source-0009" ], "role": "Existing evidence items, in their original order" }, "provenance": { "kind": "curatorial", "basis": "Stable within the fingerprinted record version; no source content or source review has been added.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "complete" }, "sources[].language": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "sources[].relationship": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "evidence": [ { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2021). Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Typhoons - 2021-2022. ReliefWeb, posted 15 September 2021 (PDF).", "title": "Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines, 2021-2022", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/anticipatory-action-framework-philippines-2021-2022", "date": "2021-09-15", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "The Model includes a trigger mechanism based on the ECMWF forecast and IFRC/ Netherlands Red Cross 510 probabilistic typhoon impact prediction model developed for the Philippines" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2021). Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Typhoons - 2021-2022, model checklist and model selection sections (PDF).", "title": "Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines, 2021-2022 (model selection)", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/attachments/78d0268e-b476-3a55-ab82-94e7478fc408/Anticipatory%20Action%20Framework%20-%20Philippines%20-%20Typhoons%20-%202021-2022.pdf", "date": "2021-09-15", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "Partially: Uses a machine learning model to determine relationship between wind speed and housing damage." }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA Philippines (2022). Report on the After Action Review for CERF Anticipatory Action, 31 March 2022. ReliefWeb (PDF dated 22 April 2022).", "title": "After Action Review on the CERF Anticipatory Action for Typhoons", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/after-action-review-cerf-anticipatory-action-typhoons", "date": "2022-03-31", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "While the typhoon at the end did not meet the AA pilot activation criteria, the CERF AA Core Group was closely monitoring the situation" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2023). Philippines: CERF AA (Anticipatory Action) Framework, 2023 Revision. unocha.org, 3 October 2023 (PDF).", "title": "Philippines: CERF AA (Anticipatory Action) Framework, 2023 Revision", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/philippines/philippines-cerf-aa-anticipatory-action-framework-2023-revision", "date": "2023-10-03", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "Tropical Cyclone with potential to reach category level 3 or higher" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2025). Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Tropical Cyclones (as of 03 October 2025, endorsed 19 October 2025). ReliefWeb, posted 4 November 2025 (PDF).", "title": "Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines - Tropical Cyclones (As of 03 October 2025)", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/anticipatory-action-framework-philippines-tropical-cyclones-03-october-2025", "date": "2025-10-19", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "This will be used to compare against 510 model outputs at 72 hours before landfall, in order to account for varying regional vulnerabilities." }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2025). Philippines: Tropical Cyclones Kalmaegi/Tino and Fung-Wong/Uwan - Flash Update No. 1 (as of 07 November, 9 p.m. local time). ReliefWeb.", "title": "Philippines: Tropical Cyclones Kalmaegi/Tino and Fung-Wong/Uwan - Flash Update No. 1", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time", "date": "2025-11-07", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "CERF Anticipatory Action (AA) was activated on 06 November after the observational threshold for Tropical Cyclone Fung-won (Uwan) was triggered" }, { "kind": "press release", "citation": "Paulose, H. (2026). How anticipatory action shaped the response to the Philippines' Twin Typhoons. OCHA Financing and Outreach Division, un.org, January 2026.", "title": "How anticipatory action shaped the response to the Philippines' Twin Typhoons", "url": "https://www.un.org/en/delegate/how-anticipatory-action-shaped-response-philippines%E2%80%99-twin-typhoons", "date": "2026-01-19", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "WFP alone reached 42,100 families through its anticipatory financing mechanism" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "OCHA (2025). Philippines: Multiple Tropical Cyclones: Humanitarian Needs and Priorities - Response Overview Report (November 2024 - April 2025). unocha.org, 27 June 2025.", "title": "Philippines: Multiple Tropical Cyclones: Humanitarian Needs and Priorities - Response Overview Report", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/philippines/philippines-multiple-tropical-cyclones-humanitarian-needs-and-priorities-response-overview-report-november-2024-april-2025", "date": "2025-06-27", "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "CERF AA resources were reallocated to support the emergency response following Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi)" }, { "kind": "peer-reviewed study", "citation": "Kooshki Forooshani, M., van den Homberg, M., Kalimeri, K., Kaltenbrunner, A., Mejova, Y., Milano, L., et al. (2024). Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 24, 309-329, 1 February 2024.", "title": "Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones", "url": "https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/309/2024/", "date": "2024-02-01", "written_by": "makers", "quote": "in 2021 as the trigger model for the UN OCHA AA pilot" } ] } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "evidence" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "sources[].upstream_sources": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "strategic_assessments[]": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "family": "strategic assessments" }, "summary": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "summary": "OCHA frameworks (2021, 2023, 2025) use 510's XGBoost house-damage model as activation trigger; near-activation Dec 2021 (Rai); the Nov 2025 activation for Uwan ran on the 185 km/h wind trigger.", "account": "OCHA's Anticipatory Action (AA) Framework for Philippine typhoons was posted on ReliefWeb on 15 September 2021. It set up a US$7.5 million CERF pilot for about 270,500 people in Regions 5 and 8 with FAO, IOM, UNFPA, UNICEF and WFP. It has a two-stage trigger. The readiness trigger is PAGASA and 510 forecasts of a category 4 or stronger cyclone. The activation trigger, within 72 hours of landfall, is the IFRC/Netherlands Red Cross 510 probabilistic typhoon impact prediction model's predicted number of totally damaged houses. The framework says that model partially uses a machine learning model relating wind speed to housing damage. 510's 2024 NHESS paper (vendor-authored) states the XGBoost model served in 2021 as the trigger model for the UN OCHA AA pilot. OCHA's After Action Review of 31 March 2022 records that Typhoon Rai (Odette) in December 2021 rapidly intensified and did not meet the activation criteria. There was a near activation with staff pre-deployed. The 2023 revision retained the 510 model. The framework endorsed on 19 October 2025 covers US$6 million CERF and about 955,507 people in Regions 5, 8 and 13. OCHA and its Centre for Humanitarian Data compute predicted totally damaged buildings with the 510 model every 6–12 hours. It adds an observational trigger for super typhoons of 185 km/h or more reported by PAGASA. OCHA's June 2025 report says the readiness trigger was met for Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) in its November 2024 to April 2025 reporting period. Activation thresholds were not reached and CERF AA resources were reallocated to the response. On 6 November 2025 CERF AA was activated for Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan) after the observational wind-speed threshold was triggered. OCHA reports nearly US$6 million released and WFP alone reaching 42,100 families. No cited document records an activation produced by the 510 model's output." } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "summary", "account" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "systems[].autonomy_permissions": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "systems[].component_role": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The model estimated how many houses a typhoon might destroy." }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Restated the mechanical task already described in the existing system and AI-role fields. No new source review is claimed.", "record_fields": [ "system", "ai_role" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "systems[].deployment_configuration": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The 2021 revision replaced deterministic forecasts with probabilities derived from ECMWF ensemble tracks." }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Separated the model, software, hardware, or operation already described in the existing record. No new source review is claimed.", "record_fields": [ "model_version", "system", "ai_role" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "systems[].inputs_outputs": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The model converted typhoon forecasts and data on exposed housing into estimates of houses likely to be destroyed." }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Separated the model, software, hardware, or operation already described in the existing record. No new source review is claimed.", "record_fields": [ "system", "ai_role", "replication", "account" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "systems[].model_name": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "XGBoost within the 510 typhoon-impact model." }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Separated the model, software, hardware, or operation already described in the existing record. No new source review is claimed.", "record_fields": [ "model_version", "system", "ai_role" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "systems[].model_version": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "model_version": "probabilistic version using ECMWF ensemble tracks (revamped from deterministic, 2021)" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "model_version" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial", "display": { "answer": "Exact release not established.", "editor_note": "" } }, "systems[].product_name": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "system": "510 probabilistic typhoon impact model (XGBoost) predicting totally damaged houses, used as the CERF anticipatory action activation trigger" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "system" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "systems[].provider": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "structured", "data": { "application_developer": "510, an initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross, with IFRC" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Mapped from the existing case description without a new external source review.", "record_fields": [ "developer" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "taxonomy_crosswalks[]": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "title": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "title": "UN OCHA's CERF anticipatory action framework for Philippine typhoons adopted 510's machine-learning impact model as trigger in 2021; no activation on that trigger documented to 2025", "headline": "OCHA uses 510's model as CERF trigger; no activation documented" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "title", "headline" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "version": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "identifiers", "identifiers": [ "fb2e5c80103070fb65e02114473a292ff7832a3193b97eaae26cfce2e51f4adb" ], "role": "SHA-256 of normalized original case data" }, "provenance": { "kind": "curatorial", "basis": "Deterministic content version assigned by the local migration.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "complete" }, "workflow": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "account": "OCHA's Anticipatory Action (AA) Framework for Philippine typhoons was posted on ReliefWeb on 15 September 2021. It set up a US$7.5 million CERF pilot for about 270,500 people in Regions 5 and 8 with FAO, IOM, UNFPA, UNICEF and WFP. It has a two-stage trigger. The readiness trigger is PAGASA and 510 forecasts of a category 4 or stronger cyclone. The activation trigger, within 72 hours of landfall, is the IFRC/Netherlands Red Cross 510 probabilistic typhoon impact prediction model's predicted number of totally damaged houses. The framework says that model partially uses a machine learning model relating wind speed to housing damage. 510's 2024 NHESS paper (vendor-authored) states the XGBoost model served in 2021 as the trigger model for the UN OCHA AA pilot. OCHA's After Action Review of 31 March 2022 records that Typhoon Rai (Odette) in December 2021 rapidly intensified and did not meet the activation criteria. There was a near activation with staff pre-deployed. The 2023 revision retained the 510 model. The framework endorsed on 19 October 2025 covers US$6 million CERF and about 955,507 people in Regions 5, 8 and 13. OCHA and its Centre for Humanitarian Data compute predicted totally damaged buildings with the 510 model every 6–12 hours. It adds an observational trigger for super typhoons of 185 km/h or more reported by PAGASA. OCHA's June 2025 report says the readiness trigger was met for Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) in its November 2024 to April 2025 reporting period. Activation thresholds were not reached and CERF AA resources were reallocated to the response. On 6 November 2025 CERF AA was activated for Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan) after the observational wind-speed threshold was triggered. OCHA reports nearly US$6 million released and WFP alone reaching 42,100 families. No cited document records an activation produced by the 510 model's output.", "replication": { "produced_by": [ "A pre-arranged CERF allocation with agency action plans ready before the typhoon season", "ECMWF ensemble track, wind and rainfall forecasts fed to the 510 impact model every 6–12 hours", "Historical house-damage data linking hazard, vulnerability and exposure to train the model", "A threshold matrix of predicted totally damaged houses per region with a 1-in-3.5-year return period (2025)" ], "must_hold": [ "Forecast lead time of at least 72 hours; rapid intensification (Rai 2021) shortened lead time below the trigger window", "Model impact estimates reaching the regional threshold matrix, which no read activation record documents", "Agency delivery capacity (financial service providers, data-sharing agreements) in the 72 hours before landfall", "PAGASA and ECMWF data availability" ], "echoes": [ { "setting": "Typhoon Rai (Odette), December 2021: forecasts monitored, activation criteria not met, staff pre-deployed (near activation)", "model_version": "2021 probabilistic version", "outcome": "did not recur", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/after-action-review-cerf-anticipatory-action-typhoons" }, { "setting": "Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi), within OCHA's November 2024 to April 2025 reporting period: readiness trigger met, activation thresholds not reached, CERF AA resources reallocated to emergency response", "outcome": "did not recur", "source": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/philippines/philippines-multiple-tropical-cyclones-humanitarian-needs-and-priorities-response-overview-report-november-2024-april-2025" }, { "date": "2025-11-06", "setting": "Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan): CERF AA activated on the observational 185 km/h threshold; nearly US$6 million released; WFP reports 42,100 families reached; AI model's role not stated", "outcome": "unknown", "source": "https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-tropical-cyclones-kalmaegitino-and-fung-wonguwan-flash-update-no1-07-november-9-pm-local-time" } ] } } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "account", "replication" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" } }, "summary": { "total": 91, "addressed": 91, "known": 33, "reviewed": 0, "record_mapped": 33, "not_assessed": 58, "complete": false, "by_state": { "value_present": 33, "not_reported": 0, "unresolved": 0, "not_assessed": 58, "not_applicable": 0, "withheld": 0, "source_unavailable": 0 } } } }