{
  "id": "AIBD-0242",
  "title": "UCF matched case-control study of 2,100 automated-vehicle and 35,113 human-driven crashes finds lower ADS crash odds in most scenarios, higher at dawn/dusk and turning",
  "summary": "Nature Communications (18 Jun 2024): using California DMV, NHTSA Standing General Order and SWITRS data, Abdel-Aty and Ding find ADS crash odds lower in most matched scenarios but 5.25x higher at d...",
  "date_observed": "2024-06-18",
  "date_basis": "unassessed",
  "date_precision": "unassessed",
  "benefit_status": null,
  "source_collection": null,
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  "account": "Mohamed Abdel-Aty and Shengxuan Ding of the University of Central Florida's Smart and Safe Transportation Lab assembled 2,100 automated-vehicle crash records. They came from the California DMV and NHTSA's Standing General Order databases (1,099 SAE Level 4 ADS, 1,001 Level 2 ADAS). They added 35,113 human-driven-vehicle crashes from California's SWITRS and fitted a matched case-control logistic regression. Compared with human-driven vehicles, the odds of an ADS crash in rain were 0.335 times, and most pre-crash movements reduced crash odds. But the odds of an ADS crash at dawn or dusk were 5.250 times and in turning maneuvers 1.988 times those of a human-driven vehicle. The authors attribute the advantages to object detection, precision control and decision-making, and the disadvantages to sensor adaptation to changing light and limited situational awareness. The paper was received 30 Sep 2023, accepted 2 May 2024 and published 18 Jun 2024, the date given. The analysis does not attribute vehicles to specific developers, so no individual maker is credited. The Europe PMC full text is among the sources.",
  "category": "general benefit",
  "unexpected": false,
  "purpose": "Automated driving systems are built to drive without human intervention. The study measures their crash occurrence against human-driven vehicles.",
  "system": "SAE Level 4 automated driving systems and Level 2 driver-assistance systems reported in California DMV and NHTSA SGO crash records (makers not disaggregated)",
  "model_version": null,
  "developer": "Multiple automated-vehicle developers (not disaggregated in the study)",
  "deployer": "Multiple operators testing and deploying automated vehicles, mainly in California",
  "location": null,
  "domain": "Road vehicle crash avoidance",
  "segment": "Automated driving systems",
  "benefit_type": "Increased Product Safety",
  "taxonomy_note": null,
  "registry_ids": {},
  "ratings": [
    {
      "group": "societal",
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      "reason": "Aggregate statistical comparison with no attributable outcome."
    },
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    "status": "assessed",
    "statement": "The study compares the conditions under which ADS and human-driven crashes occurred. It does not observe interventions and cannot separate exposure differences from system performance. Independent university authors; regulator databases as sources."
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "kind": "peer-reviewed study",
      "citation": "Abdel-Aty M, Ding S (2024). A matched case-control analysis of autonomous vs human-driven vehicle accidents. Nature Communications 15, 4931. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48526-4.",
      "title": "A matched case-control analysis of autonomous vs human-driven vehicle accidents",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/MED/38890354",
      "date": "2024-06-18",
      "written_by": "independent",
      "quote": "The analysis suggests that accidents of vehicles equipped with Advanced Driving Systems generally have a lower chance of occurring than Human-Driven Vehicles in most of the similar accident scenarios."
    },
    {
      "kind": "peer-reviewed study",
      "citation": "Abdel-Aty M, Ding S (2024). A matched case-control analysis of autonomous vs human-driven vehicle accidents. Nature Communications; doi 10.1038/s41467-024-48526-4 (PMC11189485, full text via Europe PMC).",
      "title": "A matched case-control analysis of autonomous vs human-driven vehicle accidents",
      "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11189485/fullTextXML",
      "date": "2024-06-18",
      "written_by": "independent",
      "quote": null
    }
  ],
  "replication": {
    "produced_by": [
      "Mandatory crash reporting for automated vehicles to the California DMV and under NHTSA's Standing General Order",
      "A state police-reported crash database (SWITRS) with matching variables for road, environment and pre-crash movement",
      "Matched case-control logistic regression across road, environment and crash type"
    ],
    "must_hold": [
      "Continued regulator collection of ADS and ADAS crash reports",
      "Comparable variable definitions between ADS reports and human crash records",
      "Enough ADS crashes in each condition to estimate odds ratios"
    ],
    "echoes": [
      {
        "date": "2024-07-14",
        "setting": "Insurance-claims comparison by Swiss Re and Waymo authors: zero bodily-injury and 76% fewer property-damage claims over 3.9 million rider-only miles in San Francisco and Phoenix",
        "model_version": null,
        "outcome": "recurred",
        "source": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34379"
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-16",
        "setting": "Waymo rider-only crash rates by crash type versus police-reported benchmarks at 56.7 million miles (Waymo authors, peer-reviewed)",
        "model_version": null,
        "outcome": "recurred",
        "source": "https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2025.2499887"
      }
    ]
  },
  "paired_incident": null,
  "headline": "ADS crash odds are lower in most scenarios, higher at dusk",
  "metric": "Compared with human-driven vehicles, the odds of an ADS crash in rain were 0.335 times",
  "comparator": {
    "against": "human-driven vehicle crashes from California SWITRS in matched scenarios",
    "before": "Human-Driven Vehicles (reference odds)",
    "after": "the odds of an ADS accident occurring in rainy weather are 0.335 times; 5.25 times higher at dawn/dusk and 1.98 times higher when turning",
    "basis": "measured",
    "quote": "The analysis suggests that accidents of vehicles equipped with Advanced Driving Systems generally have a lower chance of occurring than Human-Driven Vehicles in most of the similar accident scenarios. However, accidents involving Advanced Driving Systems occur more frequently than Human-Driven Vehicle accidents under dawn/dusk or turning conditions, which is 5.25 and 1.98 times higher, respectively.",
    "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11189485/fullTextXML"
  },
  "later": {
    "status": "unknown",
    "date": null,
    "note": "No development after the 18 June 2024 publication was found in the cited source.",
    "quote": null,
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      "date": "2026-10-20",
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      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "change": "Headline reworded to state the event without naming who claims it.",
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      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "change": "Added what the benefit is measured against from the cited sources.",
      "source": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11189485/fullTextXML",
      "editor": "AIBD"
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      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "change": "Benefit type set to Increased Product Safety under Trustible's full taxonomy of 23 types; it was Improved Organizational Efficiency among the six first used.",
      "source": "https://trustible.ai/post/a-framework-for-measuring-the-benefits-of-ai/",
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      "change": "Prose pass: a rating reason, account, purpose, the system's part rewritten in shorter sentences with abbreviations expanded; facts, figures and quotations unchanged.",
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              ],
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                "Enough ADS crashes in each condition to estimate odds ratios"
              ],
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                {
                  "date": "2024-07-14",
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                {
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    },
    "summary": {
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      "reviewed": 0,
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      "by_state": {
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        "not_applicable": 0,
        "withheld": 0,
        "source_unavailable": 0
      }
    }
  }
}