{ "id": "AIBD-0166", "title": "ActiveRemediation helps Flint locate hazardous water pipes", "summary": "ActiveRemediation helped Flint prioritize homes for inspection and replacement of lead or galvanized-steel service lines.", "date_observed": "2016-01-01", "date_basis": "event", "date_precision": "year", "benefit_status": "reported", "source_collection": null, "source_entry": null, "account": "University researchers worked with Flint’s service-line replacement program from summer 2016. ActiveRemediation used property records and confirmed pipe materials to recommend inspections. Its held-out prediction accuracy was 91.6%. The researchers reported that the program had replaced hazardous lines at 4,419 homes by September 2017. A separate simulation estimated savings of about US$622 per replacement. Independent reporting later documented a decline in inspection success after the contractor changed its approach, alongside changes in geography and policy. A March 2019 court order required prioritization using the model’s address lists. The field evidence does not isolate the model’s effect on residents’ health or realized expenditure.", "category": "benefit created", "unexpected": false, "purpose": "The model and active-learning rules were built to predict which Flint homes had lead or galvanized service lines and to direct inspections and replacements. The improved hit rate was the intended use.", "system": "ActiveRemediation, combining XGBoost predictions, a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model, and active learning", "model_version": null, "developer": "University of Michigan (Jacob Abernethy, Alex Chojnacki, Arya Farahi, Eric Schwartz, Jared Webb)", "deployer": "City of Flint (FAST Start service-line replacement program)", "location": "Flint, United States", "domain": "Water infrastructure", "segment": "Lead service-line replacement", "benefit_type": "Improved Task Accuracy", "taxonomy_note": "The public-health good of lead removal is the end; the documented gain is the hit rate per excavation.", "registry_ids": {}, "ratings": [ { "group": "personal", "depth": 2, "reason": "Residents benefited from identification and replacement of hazardous service lines, without a measured health effect attributable to the model." }, { "group": "organizational", "depth": 2, "reason": "The program gained a measured capability to predict pipe materials and prioritize work." }, { "group": "societal", "depth": 3, "reason": "Flint replaced hazardous service lines at thousands of homes, with predictions helping prioritize inspections." } ], "ai_role": { "status": "assessed", "statement": "Predictions helped officials prioritize inspections and replacements. The field comparison also involved changes in geography and policy, so it does not isolate the model’s contribution. The monetary saving came from simulation." }, "evidence": [ { "kind": "peer-reviewed study", "citation": "Abernethy, Jacob, Alex Chojnacki, Arya Farahi, Eric Schwartz, and Jared Webb. “ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan.” KDD 2018. https://doi.org/10.1145/3219819.3219896.", "title": "ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.10692", "date": "2018-06-10", "written_by": "makers", "quote": null }, { "kind": "news report", "citation": "Madrigal, Alexis C. “How a Feel-Good AI Story Went Wrong in Flint.” The Atlantic, January 3, 2019.", "title": "How a Feel-Good AI Story Went Wrong in Flint", "url": "https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/01/how-machine-learning-found-flints-lead-pipes/578692/", "date": "2019-01-03", "written_by": "independent", "quote": null }, { "kind": "court document", "citation": "Concerned Pastors for Social Action v. Khouri, No. 16-10277, ECF No. 208 (E.D. Mich. March 26, 2019).", "title": "Order Amending Settlement Agreement", "url": "https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/order-amending-settlement-agreement-flint-20190326.pdf", "date": "2019-03-26", "written_by": "independent", "quote": null, "supports_benefit": false }, { "kind": "news report", "citation": "Tribou, Doug. “In Flint, Algorithm Predicts Lead Pipe Locations as Replacement Work Continues.” Michigan Radio, April 25, 2019.", "title": "In Flint, algorithm predicts lead pipe locations as replacement work continues", "url": "https://www.michiganpublic.org/news/2019-04-25/in-flint-algorithm-predicts-lead-pipe-locations-as-replacement-work-continues", "date": "2019-04-25", "written_by": "independent", "quote": null } ], "replication": { "produced_by": [ "Digitized parcel records and confirmed pipe materials", "Models that updated as inspection results arrived", "Researchers, officials, and contractors who shared information" ], "must_hold": [ "Verified inspection results", "Practical rules for prioritizing excavations", "Official use of the predictions alongside local needs" ], "echoes": [] }, "paired_incident": null, "headline": "Flint uses predictions to find hazardous water pipes", "metric": "91.6% held-out prediction accuracy; 10.7% lower cost per replacement in simulation", "comparator": { "against": "The recorded sequence of inspection and replacement work in a simulation", "before": "Estimated US$5,818 per replacement", "after": "Estimated US$5,196 per replacement", "basis": "assumed", "quote": "The proposed method lowers the effective cost per successful service line replacement, saving $621.7 per home (10.7%)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.10692" }, "later": { "status": "litigated", "date": "2019-03-26", "note": "The federal court ordered that Flint prioritize the model’s address lists for excavation and replacement, with defined exceptions.", "quote": null, "url": "https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/order-amending-settlement-agreement-flint-20190326.pdf" }, "value": null, "developer_country": "United States", "deployer_country": "United States", "unrated_because": null, "brief_notes": null, "brief": null, "revisions": [ { "date": "2026-10-20", "change": "Record drafted from the cited sources.", "source": null, "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Benefit type set to Improved Task Accuracy under Trustible's full taxonomy of 23 types; it was Improved Organizational Efficiency among the six first used.", "source": "https://trustible.ai/post/a-framework-for-measuring-the-benefits-of-ai/", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Added what the benefit is measured against, what happened since from the cited sources.", "source": "https://www.michiganpublic.org/news/2019-04-25/in-flint-algorithm-predicts-lead-pipe-locations-as-replacement-work-continues; https://www.mswmag.com/online_exclusives/2019/02/flint-to-revert-back-to-data-driven-predictive-model-for-lead-pipe-replacements", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Country of the developer and the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michigan; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flint,_Michigan", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Prose pass: a rating reason, account, purpose, the system's part rewritten in shorter sentences with abbreviations expanded; facts, figures and quotations unchanged.", "source": null, "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "change": "Organization name standardized to City of Flint and University of Michigan.", "source": null, "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "change": "Reviewed the original evidence and supporting material; updated system details, methods, outcomes, limitations, costs, and source lineage.", "source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.10692", "editor": "AIBD" } ], "confidence": "reported", "shade": "medium", "claim_status": "Independently reported", "claim_basis": "Sources: one independent court document, two independent news reports and the makers' peer-reviewed study. 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The city controlled the replacement program and its contracts." } }, "ai_contribution": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Predictions informed inspection and replacement priorities. The paper did not randomize the city’s decisions." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Predictions informed inspection and replacement priorities. 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No international data transfer is documented." } }, "decisions[].action_outcome": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The city had to prioritize the model’s address lists, document exceptions, and report completed work." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "¶¶1–6.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0003" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The city had to prioritize the model’s address lists, document exceptions, and report completed work." } }, "decisions[].grounds": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The parties agreed that the city should first excavate homes with the highest predicted likelihood of hazardous lines." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "¶¶1–3.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0003" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The parties agreed that the city should first excavate homes with the highest predicted likelihood of hazardous lines." } }, "decisions[].institution_task": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The federal court amended the settlement governing Flint’s service-line replacement program." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Opening order.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0003" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The federal court amended the settlement governing Flint’s service-line replacement program." } }, "decisions[].success_criterion": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The city had to excavate the listed addresses and replace hazardous lines by 1 January 2020." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "¶3.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0003" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The city had to excavate the listed addresses and replace hazardous lines by 1 January 2020." } }, "deployment_stage": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Researchers worked with Flint’s replacement program from summer 2016." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§2; Table 1.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Researchers worked with Flint’s replacement program from summer 2016." } }, "economics[].amount": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The simulation estimated about US$622 less per replacement, or US$11.18 million if applied to 18,000 replacements." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Table 5.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The simulation estimated about US$622 less per replacement, or US$11.18 million if applied to 18,000 replacements." } }, "economics[].costs[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The simulation assumed US$250 for a hydrovac inspection, US$2,500 for an unnecessary excavation, and US$5,000 for a needed replacement." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The simulation assumed US$250 for a hydrovac inspection, US$2,500 for an unnecessary excavation, and US$5,000 for a needed replacement." } }, "economics[].counterfactual": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Estimated average cost was US$5,818 under the recorded work sequence and US$5,196 under the proposed strategy." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Table 5.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Estimated average cost was US$5,818 under the recorded work sequence and US$5,196 under the proposed strategy." } }, "economics[].currency_price_basis": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "U.S. dollars, using the unit costs assumed in the study. A separate inflation base year is not stated." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "U.S. dollars, using the unit costs assumed in the study. A separate inflation base year is not stated." } }, "economics[].gross_net": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The estimate includes excavation and replacement costs, but not every cost of operating the program." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The estimate includes excavation and replacement costs, but not every cost of operating the program." } }, "economics[].measure_type": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Modeled cost savings." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Table 5.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Modeled cost savings." } }, "economics[].period_unit": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Per replacement, with an extrapolation to 18,000 replacements." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Table 5.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Per replacement, with an extrapolation to 18,000 replacements." } }, "economics[].realization": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The savings were simulated. They are not an audited reduction in city expenditure." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.2; Table 5.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The savings were simulated. They are not an audited reduction in city expenditure." } }, "economics[].recipient_payer": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The modeled savings would reduce the cost of the publicly funded replacement program." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§1; §4.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The modeled savings would reduce the cost of the publicly funded replacement program." } }, "economics[].return_payback": { "state": "not_reported", "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "reason": "No complete return-on-investment or payback calculation is reported.", "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "No complete return-on-investment or payback calculation is reported." } }, "economics[].valuation_method": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Researchers simulated inspection and replacement sequences, applied fixed unit costs, and extrapolated the difference." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Researchers simulated inspection and replacement sequences, applied fixed unit costs, and extrapolated the difference." } }, "evaluations[].ai_uplift": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The estimated cost improvement came from a simulation. The field results do not isolate the model from crews, funding, and policy decisions." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The estimated cost improvement came from a simulation. The field results do not isolate the model from crews, funding, and policy decisions." } }, "evaluations[].comparator": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The cost simulation compared the proposed strategy with the sequence of work in the city’s records." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.2; Table 5.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The cost simulation compared the proposed strategy with the sequence of work in the city’s records." } }, "evaluations[].design": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Researchers tested predictions on held-out homes and compared inspection strategies in simulations." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§4.1–4.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Researchers tested predictions on held-out homes and compared inspection strategies in simulations." } }, "evaluations[].effect": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The held-out prediction accuracy was 91.6%. The simulated strategy lowered estimated cost per replacement by 10.7%." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.1.1; Table 5.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The held-out prediction accuracy was 91.6%. The simulated strategy lowered estimated cost per replacement by 10.7%." } }, "evaluations[].exposure": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Predictions were updated as crews recorded new inspections and replacements." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2.3–3.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Predictions were updated as crews recorded new inspections and replacements." } }, "evaluations[].id": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "identifiers", "identifiers": [ "AIBD-0166-E01", "AIBD-0166-E02" ], "role": "evaluations" }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Identifiers assigned to the evaluations described here.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "AIBD-0166-E01, AIBD-0166-E02" } }, "evaluations[].measurement_method": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Excavation results supplied the pipe-material labels. Validation and simulated work sequences used those records." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Excavation results supplied the pipe-material labels. Validation and simulated work sequences used those records." } }, "evaluations[].metric": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Pipe-material prediction, inspection success, and modeled cost per replacement." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Pipe-material prediction, inspection success, and modeled cost per replacement." } }, "evaluations[].reproduction_materials": { "state": "not_reported", "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§3; §4.1.1, n. 6.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "reason": "The paper describes the algorithms and simulations. It does not supply all settings needed to reproduce the deployed system.", "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The paper describes the algorithms and simulations. It does not supply all settings needed to reproduce the deployed system." } }, "evaluations[].setting_sample": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The database covered 55,893 parcels. The main accuracy test held out 1,606 homes with known pipe materials." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§2.1; §4.1.1.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The database covered 55,893 parcels. The main accuracy test held out 1,606 homes with known pipe materials." } }, "evaluations[].uncertainty_limitations": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Known pipe materials came from a selected set of inspected homes. The simulated costs omitted travel and other logistical constraints." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§4.1–4.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Known pipe materials came from a selected set of inspected homes. The simulated costs omitted travel and other logistical constraints." } }, "external_references[]": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "follow_up[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "A March 2019 court order required the city to prioritize addresses identified by the predictive model, subject to defined exceptions." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "¶¶1–4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0003" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "A March 2019 court order required the city to prioritize addresses identified by the predictive model, subject to defined exceptions." } }, "human_oversight": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "City officials set priorities, contractors confirmed pipe materials, and researchers maintained the model." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2–4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "City officials set priorities, contractors confirmed pipe materials, and researchers maintained the model." } }, "id": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "id": "AIBD-0166" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "id" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "infrastructure_dependencies[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The system depended on digitized parcel records, reliable excavation labels, a shared database, and crews who could inspect and replace pipes." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The system depended on digitized parcel records, reliable excavation labels, a shared database, and crews who could inspect and replace pipes." } }, "outcomes[].beneficiaries": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Residents whose hazardous service lines were identified and replaced." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Table 1.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Residents whose hazardous service lines were identified and replaced." } }, "outcomes[].beneficiary_count": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "By September 2017, the program had replaced hazardous lines at 4,419 homes and identified pipe materials at 6,506." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Table 1.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "By September 2017, the program had replaced hazardous lines at 4,419 homes and identified pipe materials at 6,506." } }, "outcomes[].benefit_type": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Improved accuracy in locating hazardous service lines." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.1.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Improved accuracy in locating hazardous service lines." } }, "outcomes[].claim": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The model helped direct inspections toward homes likely to have hazardous pipes." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§3–4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The model helped direct inspections toward homes likely to have hazardous pipes." } }, "outcomes[].distribution": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Predictions varied by address and neighborhood. The benefit depended on whether officials used them to set priorities." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2–4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Predictions varied by address and neighborhood. The benefit depended on whether officials used them to set priorities." } }, "outcomes[].duration": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Replacement permanently changed the identified service lines. The paper did not measure residents’ later health." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2–4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Replacement permanently changed the identified service lines. The paper did not measure residents’ later health." } }, "outcomes[].id": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].stakeholder_group": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Residents and the city’s water-infrastructure program." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§1–2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Residents and the city’s water-infrastructure program." } }, "outcomes[].status": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The system was used in the field. Accuracy was tested retrospectively, and monetary savings were modeled." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The system was used in the field. Accuracy was tested retrospectively, and monetary savings were modeled." } }, "outcomes[].tradeoffs": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Residents and officials also sought broad coverage and certainty about individual homes. These priorities could change the order of excavation." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Interviews about the 2018 change in priorities.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0002" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Residents and officials also sought broad coverage and certainty about individual homes. These priorities could change the order of excavation." } }, "outcomes[].unexpected": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Finding and removing hazardous pipes was the intended benefit." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§1.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Finding and removing hazardous pipes was the intended benefit." } }, "places[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Flint, Michigan, United States." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§1.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Flint, Michigan, United States." } }, "purpose": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The system estimated which homes were most likely to have hazardous service lines." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§1.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The system estimated which homes were most likely to have hazardous service lines." } }, "record_dates": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "structured", "data": { "start": "2016", "end": "2017-09", "precision": "season to month", "display": "Summer 2016–September 2017", "refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "current_date_observed": "2018-07-19", "instruction": "Use the observed result period for the case date. Keep the full study period separately; the normalized sort date does not imply a more precise observation.", "observed_result_period": "2016", "observed_result_precision": "year", "observed_result_basis": "Model-guided fieldwork began in summer 2016." } }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Original study timing.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Field work began in summer 2016. The paper reports replacements and inspections through September 2017." } }, "replication.attempts[]": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "replication.conditions": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Useful parcel records, verified inspection results, and a working relationship with the people who choose excavation sites are necessary." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2–4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Useful parcel records, verified inspection results, and a working relationship with the people who choose excavation sites are necessary." } }, "revision_history[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "revisions": [ { "date": "2026-10-20", "change": "Record drafted from the cited sources.", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Benefit type set to Improved Task Accuracy under Trustible's full taxonomy of 23 types; it was Improved Organizational Efficiency among the six first used.", "source": "https://trustible.ai/post/a-framework-for-measuring-the-benefits-of-ai/", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Added what the benefit is measured against, what happened since from the cited sources.", "source": "https://www.michiganpublic.org/news/2019-04-25/in-flint-algorithm-predicts-lead-pipe-locations-as-replacement-work-continues; https://www.mswmag.com/online_exclusives/2019/02/flint-to-revert-back-to-data-driven-predictive-model-for-lead-pipe-replacements", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Country of the developer and the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michigan; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flint,_Michigan", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Prose pass: a rating reason, account, purpose, the system's part rewritten in shorter sentences with abbreviations expanded; facts, figures and quotations unchanged.", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "change": "Organization name standardized to City of Flint and University of Michigan.", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "change": "Reviewed the original evidence and supporting material; updated system details, methods, outcomes, limitations, costs, and source lineage.", "source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.10692", "editor": "AIBD" } ] } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "revisions" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "sector": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Water infrastructure and public health." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§1.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Water infrastructure and public health." } }, "sources[].access_version": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The revised original paper, the complete news article, and the relevant court-order provisions were read. 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The Atlantic adds independent reporting. The court order is evidence of a decision, not an independent estimate of lives or money saved." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2–4, Tables 1 and 5.; Field totals and interviews with Michael McDaniel, Karen Weaver, Alan Wong, and Eric Schwartz.; ¶¶1–6, pp. 1–4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001", "AIBD-0166-source-0002", "AIBD-0166-source-0003" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The researchers evaluated their own system. The Atlantic adds independent reporting. 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The model description and some estimates derive from F1 and court filings.", "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0002" ], "access": "The original article’s body was read.", "publication_date": "2019-01-03" }, { "url": "https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/declaration-eric-schwartz-flint-20181001.pdf", "title": "Declaration of Eric Schwartz, October 1, 2018", "locator": "ECF 203-4, model development and communications with AECOM.", "contribution": "Primary declaration underlying part of the implementation account. Targeted passages were read; the whole filing was not reviewed.", "relationship": "Primary declaration underlying part of the implementation account. Targeted passages were read; the whole filing was not reviewed.", "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0002" ] }, { "url": "https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/order-amending-settlement-agreement-flint-20190326.pdf", "title": "Order Amending Settlement Agreement", "locator": "¶¶1–6, pp. 1–4.", "contribution": "The court required prioritization of addresses selected using the predictive model, with specified exceptions and reporting.", "relationship": "Original judicial order. It establishes the required decision process, not a causal finding about the system’s benefit.", "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0003" ], "access": "Original PDF downloaded; ¶¶1–6 were read.", "publication_date": "2019-03-26", "retention_note": "Decision evidence only. The order does not establish a causal benefit finding." }, { "url": "https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/notice-modified-settlement-agreement-flint-20190212.pdf", "title": "Stipulation and Notice of Proposed Amendments to Settlement Agreement", "locator": "ECF 207, pp. 1–6; ¶1 n. 1 cites ActiveRemediation.", "contribution": "The agreement that the court approved. Relevant original pages were read.", "relationship": "The agreement that the court approved. Relevant original pages were read.", "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0003" ] }, { "url": "https://www.michiganpublic.org/news/2019-04-25/in-flint-algorithm-predicts-lead-pipe-locations-as-replacement-work-continues", "title": "In Flint, algorithm predicts lead pipe locations as replacement work continues", "locator": "“A goal of efficiency” and the original interview with Eric Schwartz.", "contribution": "A later firsthand interview reports that the research team was again working with Flint in 2019.", "relationship": "Independent interview with a developer. It establishes his account of renewed implementation, not an independent measurement of the modeled saving.", "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0004" ], "access": "The original article’s full substantive text was read on 25 October 2026. The audio was not played.", "publication_date": "2019-04-25" } ], "excluded_or_consolidated_sources": [ { "old_source_ref": "AIBD-0166-source-0006", "url": "https://www.mswmag.com/online_exclusives/2019/02/flint-to-revert-back-to-data-driven-predictive-model-for-lead-pipe-replacements", "reason": "A summary or secondary account was replaced by the original evidence. Any unique earlier quotation remains in the audit artifact." } ], "review_scope": "Original evidence, systems, evaluation methods and results, costs, chronology, human roles, limitations, and follow-up.", "chronology_source": { "source_ref": "AIBD-0166-source-0001", "date": "2018-06-10", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.10692v1", "title": "ActiveRemediation: The Search for Lead Pipes in Flint, Michigan", "role": "First public manuscript. 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The court order follows the parties’ February 2019 stipulation." } }, "strategic_assessments[]": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "family": "strategic assessments" }, "summary": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "ActiveRemediation helped Flint prioritize homes for inspection and replacement of lead or galvanized-steel service lines." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2–4, Tables 1 and 5.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "ActiveRemediation helped Flint prioritize homes for inspection and replacement of lead or galvanized-steel service lines." } }, "systems[].autonomy_permissions": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The system recommended priorities. City officials and contractors decided where to excavate and replaced the pipes." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2–4.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The system recommended priorities. City officials and contractors decided where to excavate and replaced the pipes." } }, "systems[].component_role": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "The system estimated pipe materials and ranked homes for further investigation." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§3.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The system estimated pipe materials and ranked homes for further investigation." } }, "systems[].deployment_configuration": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "A shared database and a password-protected Flask application let city staff and contractors review maps and add excavation results." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§2.3.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "A shared database and a password-protected Flask application let city staff and contractors review maps and add excavation results." } }, "systems[].inputs_outputs": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Parcel records, property characteristics, and confirmed pipe materials produced address-level probabilities and inspection priorities." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2.1–3.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Parcel records, property characteristics, and confirmed pipe materials produced address-level probabilities and inspection priorities." } }, "systems[].model_name": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "XGBoost classification trees with a hierarchical Bayesian model for spatial patterns. An active-learning policy selected further inspections." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§3.1–3.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "XGBoost classification trees with a hierarchical Bayesian model for spatial patterns. An active-learning policy selected further inspections." } }, "systems[].model_version": { "state": "not_reported", "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§3; §4.1.1, n. 6.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "reason": "The paper names the algorithms but does not identify an XGBoost release or a reproducible deployment configuration.", "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "The paper names the algorithms but does not identify an XGBoost release or a reproducible deployment configuration." } }, "systems[].product_name": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "ActiveRemediation." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Title and §3.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "ActiveRemediation." } }, "systems[].provider": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "A research team from the University of Michigan, Georgia Tech, and Brigham Young University." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "Author affiliations.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "A research team from the University of Michigan, Georgia Tech, and Brigham Young University." } }, "taxonomy_crosswalks[]": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "title": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "ActiveRemediation helps Flint locate hazardous water pipes" }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2–4, Tables 1 and 5.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "ActiveRemediation helps Flint locate hazardous water pipes" } }, "version": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "identifiers", "identifiers": [ "ded7efa1cccb04911fafe17bc25bbadc63f7fe17832804028c9c7cac855e0272" ], "role": "SHA-256 of normalized original case data" }, "provenance": { "kind": "curatorial", "basis": "Deterministic content version assigned by the local migration.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "complete" }, "workflow": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "text", "text": "Crews inspected pipes and recorded their materials. Researchers used those results to update predictions and recommend further inspections." }, "provenance": { "kind": "source_review", "basis": "§§2.3–3.2.", "record_fields": [], "source_refs": [ "AIBD-0166-source-0001" ], "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25" }, "review_state": "reviewed", "coverage": "complete", "display": { "answer": "Crews inspected pipes and recorded their materials. Researchers used those results to update predictions and recommend further inspections." } } }, "summary": { "total": 91, "addressed": 91, "known": 75, "reviewed": 76, "record_mapped": 3, "not_assessed": 12, "complete": false, "by_state": { "value_present": 75, "not_reported": 4, "unresolved": 0, "not_assessed": 12, "not_applicable": 0, "withheld": 0, "source_unavailable": 0 } } } }