{
  "id": "AIBD-0145",
  "title": "HMRC's Connect data-matching system: about £4.6 billion of additional yield in 2024–25",
  "summary": "HMRC's Connect data-matching system yielded ~£4.6bn extra tax in 2024–25 per FOI; C&AG confirms its use to stop risky repayments",
  "date_observed": "2025-03-31",
  "date_basis": "unassessed",
  "date_precision": "unassessed",
  "benefit_status": null,
  "source_collection": null,
  "source_entry": null,
  "account": "HM Revenue & Customs launched Connect in 2010–11. Its annual report calls it an IT system that joins a billion pieces of data across its tax regimes to help identify fraud. In a freedom-of-information response reported by Pinsent Masons on 8 October 2025, HMRC said Connect cases generated an average £3.4 billion of additional annual yield. It was about £4.6 billion in 2024–25, with around 4,300 staff using it. The Comptroller and Auditor General's report in HMRC's 2024–25 accounts records that HMRC used TRUCE (Transaction Risking Upstream in a Connect Environment). It served to identify and stop VAT and income-tax repayments needing investigation. IDRS replaced it from August 2023. Official sources describe data analytics and risk rules, not AI.",
  "category": "general benefit",
  "unexpected": false,
  "purpose": "Match and analyze data from many sources to identify tax non-compliance and risky repayment claims",
  "system": "HMRC Connect (data-matching and risk analytics) and TRUCE (Transaction Risking Upstream in a Connect Environment)",
  "model_version": null,
  "developer": null,
  "deployer": "HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC)",
  "location": null,
  "domain": "Tax administration: compliance and fraud detection",
  "segment": "National revenue authority",
  "benefit_type": "Increased Product Revenue",
  "taxonomy_note": "Tax yield is read as the authority's revenue; Trustible's description is written for product sales.",
  "registry_ids": {},
  "ratings": [
    {
      "group": "personal",
      "depth": null,
      "reason": "Aggregate yield with no discrete attributable event."
    },
    {
      "group": "organizational",
      "depth": null,
      "reason": "The £4.6 billion figure is HMRC's own annual attribution via FOI, not an audited event."
    },
    {
      "group": "societal",
      "depth": null,
      "reason": "Aggregate national revenue figure."
    }
  ],
  "ai_role": {
    "status": "unassessed",
    "statement": "Yield attribution to Connect comes from HMRC's FOI response as reported by Pinsent Masons. No independent evaluation apportions yield between the system and caseworkers. The NAO's audit report describes TRUCE/IDRS as automated risk-assessment of repayment claims whose controls it reviewed, without quantifying stopped repayments. The cited sources describe the system as data analytics and risk rules rather than machine learning."
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "kind": "report",
      "citation": "Comptroller and Auditor General (2025). Report on the Trust Statement, in HM Revenue & Customs Annual Report and Accounts 2024 to 2025, Key audit matter 5 (printed pp. 177-178).",
      "title": "HMRC Annual Report and Accounts 2024 to 2025 – Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General",
      "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687e5d318adf4250705c96d8/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2024_to_2025.pdf",
      "date": null,
      "written_by": "independent",
      "quote": "For both VAT and income tax, HMRC used TRUCE (the Transaction Risking Upstream in a Connect Environment) to identify and stop repayments that may require investigation."
    },
    {
      "kind": "report",
      "citation": "HM Revenue & Customs (2011). Annual Report and Accounts 2010-11, HC 981, p. 10.",
      "title": "HMRC Annual Report and Accounts 2010-11",
      "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a78b230ed915d07d35b1b53/annual-report-accounts-1011.pdf",
      "date": null,
      "written_by": "deployer",
      "quote": "We successfully launched the ‘Connect’ IT system which joins a billion pieces of data from across our tax regimes to help identify fraud."
    },
    {
      "kind": "news report",
      "citation": "Pinsent Masons Out-Law (2025). HMRC finds value in 'big data' after bringing in extra £4.6 billion, 8 Oct 2025 (reporting an HMRC FOI response).",
      "title": "HMRC finds value in ‘big data’ after bringing in extra £4.6billion",
      "url": "https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/hmrc-big-data-tax-revenue-boost-4-6-billion",
      "date": "2025-10-08",
      "written_by": "independent",
      "quote": "HMRC, in a freedom of information request to Pinsent Masons, said it generated on average £3.4bn in additional annual yield from Connect cases"
    },
    {
      "kind": "report",
      "citation": "HM Revenue & Customs (2026). Annual Report and Accounts 2025 to 2026, HC 350. Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed on 9 July 2026.",
      "title": "HMRC Annual Report and Accounts 2025 to 2026",
      "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a4f66c406e7256c331df8a2/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2025_to_2026.pdf",
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "written_by": "deployer",
      "quote": null
    }
  ],
  "replication": {
    "produced_by": [
      "Linking of bank, marketplace, land-registry and other data to taxpayer records",
      "Risk rules and scorecards feeding compliance cases to about 4,300 staff",
      "Upstream risking of VAT and Self Assessment repayment claims (TRUCE, then IDRS)"
    ],
    "must_hold": [
      "Legal gateways to third-party data",
      "Staff capacity to work cases generated by the system",
      "Governance of risk rules, which the C&AG reviews annually"
    ],
    "echoes": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-01",
        "setting": "TRUCE replaced by IDRS for VAT repayments from August 2023, Self Assessment migrated May 2024 (C&AG report; month only)",
        "model_version": null,
        "outcome": "unknown",
        "source": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687e5d318adf4250705c96d8/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2024_to_2025.pdf"
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-31",
        "setting": "Average annual yield £3.4bn from Connect cases over the period covered by the FOI response (Pinsent Masons, 8 October 2025)",
        "model_version": null,
        "outcome": "recurred",
        "source": "https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/hmrc-big-data-tax-revenue-boost-4-6-billion"
      }
    ]
  },
  "paired_incident": null,
  "headline": "HMRC's Connect yields about £4.6 billion of extra tax in 2024–25",
  "metric": "£3.4 billion of additional annual yield, about £4.6 billion in 2024–25",
  "comparator": null,
  "later": {
    "status": "persisted",
    "date": "2026-07-09",
    "note": "HMRC's 2025-26 annual report, ordered printed on 9 July 2026, says that AI and advanced analytics enabled the protection and recovery of £10 billion in tax in 2025-26 and that a Chief AI Officer was appointed in April 2026; the report does not name Connect.",
    "quote": "Artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced analytics has already enabled the protection and recovery of £10 billion in tax between 2025 and 2026, and we are continuing to work at pace in this area, appointing our first ever Chief AI Officer in April 2026, to provide clear leadership and ensure the AI advancements that we make are responsible.",
    "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a4f66c406e7256c331df8a2/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2025_to_2026.pdf"
  },
  "value": {
    "amount": "£4.6bn",
    "what": "additional tax yield from Connect cases in the 2024-25 tax year (average £3.4bn a year)",
    "who": "HMRC, for the Exchequer, gains",
    "estimate": false,
    "quote": "HMRC, in a freedom of information request to Pinsent Masons, said it generated on average £3.4bn in additional annual yield from Connect cases, with the 2024-25 tax year generating approximately £4.6bn.",
    "url": "https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/hmrc-big-data-tax-revenue-boost-4-6-billion"
  },
  "developer_country": null,
  "deployer_country": "United Kingdom",
  "unrated_because": null,
  "brief_notes": null,
  "brief": null,
  "revisions": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "change": "Record drafted from the cited sources.",
      "source": null,
      "editor": "AIBD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "change": "Title reworded to state the event without naming who claims it.",
      "source": null,
      "editor": "AIBD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "change": "Benefit type set to Increased Product Revenue under Trustible's full taxonomy of 23 types; it was Improved Organizational Efficiency among the six first used.",
      "source": "https://trustible.ai/post/a-framework-for-measuring-the-benefits-of-ai/",
      "editor": "AIBD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "change": "Added what happened since, the value as stated from the cited sources.",
      "source": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a4f66c406e7256c331df8a2/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2025_to_2026.pdf; https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/hmrc-big-data-tax-revenue-boost-4-6-billion",
      "editor": "AIBD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "change": "Country of the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.",
      "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/about",
      "editor": "AIBD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "change": "Prose pass: account, the system's part rewritten in shorter sentences with abbreviations expanded; facts, figures and quotations unchanged.",
      "source": null,
      "editor": "AIBD"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": "studied",
  "shade": "high",
  "claim_status": "Independently studied",
  "claim_basis": "Sources: one independent report, one independent news report and two reports from the deployer. The cited evidence includes no finding by a regulator or court.",
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        "family": "evaluations"
      },
      "evaluations[].measurement_method": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial",
        "family": "evaluations"
      },
      "evaluations[].metric": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
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          "kind": "legacy_record",
          "basis": "Mapped from the existing case description without a new external source review.",
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          ],
          "source_refs": []
        },
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial",
        "family": "evaluations",
        "display": {
          "answer": "£3.4 billion of additional annual yield, about £4.6 billion in 2024–25",
          "editor_note": ""
        }
      },
      "evaluations[].reproduction_materials": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial",
        "family": "evaluations"
      },
      "evaluations[].setting_sample": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial",
        "family": "evaluations"
      },
      "evaluations[].uncertainty_limitations": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
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        "family": "evaluations"
      },
      "external_references[]": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
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        "state": "value_present",
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          "kind": "record_fields",
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              "note": "HMRC's 2025-26 annual report, ordered printed on 9 July 2026, says that AI and advanced analytics enabled the protection and recovery of £10 billion in tax in 2025-26 and that a Chief AI Officer was appointed in April 2026; the report does not name Connect.",
              "quote": "Artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced analytics has already enabled the protection and recovery of £10 billion in tax between 2025 and 2026, and we are continuing to work at pace in this area, appointing our first ever Chief AI Officer in April 2026, to provide clear leadership and ensure the AI advancements that we make are responsible.",
              "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a4f66c406e7256c331df8a2/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2025_to_2026.pdf"
            }
          }
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          "kind": "record_fields",
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        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "outcomes[].beneficiaries": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
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            "account": "HM Revenue & Customs launched Connect in 2010–11. Its annual report calls it an IT system that joins a billion pieces of data across its tax regimes to help identify fraud. In a freedom-of-information response reported by Pinsent Masons on 8 October 2025, HMRC said Connect cases generated an average £3.4 billion of additional annual yield. It was about £4.6 billion in 2024–25, with around 4,300 staff using it. The Comptroller and Auditor General's report in HMRC's 2024–25 accounts records that HMRC used TRUCE (Transaction Risking Upstream in a Connect Environment). It served to identify and stop VAT and income-tax repayments needing investigation. IDRS replaced it from August 2023. Official sources describe data analytics and risk rules, not AI.",
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        "review_state": "not_assessed",
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        "review_state": "not_assessed",
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                "group": "organizational",
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              },
              {
                "group": "societal",
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              }
            ]
          }
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        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
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        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
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        "value": {
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          }
        },
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          "kind": "legacy_record",
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        },
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      },
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          "kind": "record_fields",
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          }
        },
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        },
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      },
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          }
        },
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      },
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          "kind": "record_fields",
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                "change": "Record drafted from the cited sources.",
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              },
              {
                "date": "2026-10-21",
                "change": "Title reworded to state the event without naming who claims it.",
                "editor": "AIBD"
              },
              {
                "date": "2026-10-21",
                "change": "Benefit type set to Increased Product Revenue under Trustible's full taxonomy of 23 types; it was Improved Organizational Efficiency among the six first used.",
                "source": "https://trustible.ai/post/a-framework-for-measuring-the-benefits-of-ai/",
                "editor": "AIBD"
              },
              {
                "date": "2026-10-21",
                "change": "Added what happened since, the value as stated from the cited sources.",
                "source": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a4f66c406e7256c331df8a2/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2025_to_2026.pdf; https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/hmrc-big-data-tax-revenue-boost-4-6-billion",
                "editor": "AIBD"
              },
              {
                "date": "2026-10-21",
                "change": "Country of the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.",
                "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/about",
                "editor": "AIBD"
              },
              {
                "date": "2026-10-21",
                "change": "Prose pass: account, the system's part rewritten in shorter sentences with abbreviations expanded; facts, figures and quotations unchanged.",
                "editor": "AIBD"
              }
            ]
          }
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          "kind": "record_fields",
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                "Risk rules and scorecards feeding compliance cases to about 4,300 staff",
                "Upstream risking of VAT and Self Assessment repayment claims (TRUCE, then IDRS)"
              ],
              "must_hold": [
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                "Staff capacity to work cases generated by the system",
                "Governance of risk rules, which the C&AG reviews annually"
              ],
              "echoes": [
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                  "date": "2023-08-01",
                  "setting": "TRUCE replaced by IDRS for VAT repayments from August 2023, Self Assessment migrated May 2024 (C&AG report; month only)",
                  "outcome": "unknown",
                  "source": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687e5d318adf4250705c96d8/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2024_to_2025.pdf"
                },
                {
                  "date": "2025-03-31",
                  "setting": "Average annual yield £3.4bn from Connect cases over the period covered by the FOI response (Pinsent Masons, 8 October 2025)",
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                  "source": "https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/hmrc-big-data-tax-revenue-boost-4-6-billion"
                }
              ]
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                "Upstream risking of VAT and Self Assessment repayment claims (TRUCE, then IDRS)"
              ],
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                  "source": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687e5d318adf4250705c96d8/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2024_to_2025.pdf"
                },
                {
                  "date": "2025-03-31",
                  "setting": "Average annual yield £3.4bn from Connect cases over the period covered by the FOI response (Pinsent Masons, 8 October 2025)",
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              ]
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                "change": "Benefit type set to Increased Product Revenue under Trustible's full taxonomy of 23 types; it was Improved Organizational Efficiency among the six first used.",
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              },
              {
                "date": "2026-10-21",
                "change": "Added what happened since, the value as stated from the cited sources.",
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                "editor": "AIBD"
              },
              {
                "date": "2026-10-21",
                "change": "Country of the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.",
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              },
              {
                "date": "2026-10-21",
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                "title": "HMRC Annual Report and Accounts 2024 to 2025 – Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General",
                "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687e5d318adf4250705c96d8/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2024_to_2025.pdf",
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              {
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                "url": "https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/hmrc-big-data-tax-revenue-boost-4-6-billion",
                "date": "2025-10-08",
                "written_by": "independent",
                "quote": "HMRC, in a freedom of information request to Pinsent Masons, said it generated on average £3.4bn in additional annual yield from Connect cases"
              },
              {
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                "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a4f66c406e7256c331df8a2/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2025_to_2026.pdf",
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        "coverage": "partial",
        "family": "strategic assessments"
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          "fields": {
            "summary": "HMRC's Connect data-matching system yielded ~£4.6bn extra tax in 2024–25 per FOI; C&AG confirms its use to stop risky repayments",
            "account": "HM Revenue & Customs launched Connect in 2010–11. Its annual report calls it an IT system that joins a billion pieces of data across its tax regimes to help identify fraud. In a freedom-of-information response reported by Pinsent Masons on 8 October 2025, HMRC said Connect cases generated an average £3.4 billion of additional annual yield. It was about £4.6 billion in 2024–25, with around 4,300 staff using it. The Comptroller and Auditor General's report in HMRC's 2024–25 accounts records that HMRC used TRUCE (Transaction Risking Upstream in a Connect Environment). It served to identify and stop VAT and income-tax repayments needing investigation. IDRS replaced it from August 2023. Official sources describe data analytics and risk rules, not AI."
          }
        },
        "provenance": {
          "kind": "legacy_record",
          "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.",
          "record_fields": [
            "summary",
            "account"
          ],
          "source_refs": []
        },
        "review_state": "record_mapped",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "systems[].autonomy_permissions": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "systems[].component_role": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "systems[].deployment_configuration": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "systems[].inputs_outputs": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "systems[].model_name": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "systems[].model_version": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "systems[].product_name": {
        "state": "value_present",
        "value": {
          "kind": "record_fields",
          "fields": {
            "system": "HMRC Connect (data-matching and risk analytics) and TRUCE (Transaction Risking Upstream in a Connect Environment)"
          }
        },
        "provenance": {
          "kind": "legacy_record",
          "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.",
          "record_fields": [
            "system"
          ],
          "source_refs": []
        },
        "review_state": "record_mapped",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "systems[].provider": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "taxonomy_crosswalks[]": {
        "state": "not_assessed",
        "review_state": "not_assessed",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "title": {
        "state": "value_present",
        "value": {
          "kind": "record_fields",
          "fields": {
            "title": "HMRC's Connect data-matching system: about £4.6 billion of additional yield in 2024–25",
            "headline": "HMRC's Connect yields about £4.6 billion of extra tax in 2024–25"
          }
        },
        "provenance": {
          "kind": "legacy_record",
          "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.",
          "record_fields": [
            "title",
            "headline"
          ],
          "source_refs": []
        },
        "review_state": "record_mapped",
        "coverage": "partial"
      },
      "version": {
        "state": "value_present",
        "value": {
          "kind": "identifiers",
          "identifiers": [
            "609307d763754e7933c1086b7de496e0819b101a501f5bc3aa8947927223a934"
          ],
          "role": "SHA-256 of normalized original case data"
        },
        "provenance": {
          "kind": "curatorial",
          "basis": "Deterministic content version assigned by the local migration.",
          "record_fields": [],
          "source_refs": []
        },
        "review_state": "record_mapped",
        "coverage": "complete"
      },
      "workflow": {
        "state": "value_present",
        "value": {
          "kind": "record_fields",
          "fields": {
            "account": "HM Revenue & Customs launched Connect in 2010–11. Its annual report calls it an IT system that joins a billion pieces of data across its tax regimes to help identify fraud. In a freedom-of-information response reported by Pinsent Masons on 8 October 2025, HMRC said Connect cases generated an average £3.4 billion of additional annual yield. It was about £4.6 billion in 2024–25, with around 4,300 staff using it. The Comptroller and Auditor General's report in HMRC's 2024–25 accounts records that HMRC used TRUCE (Transaction Risking Upstream in a Connect Environment). It served to identify and stop VAT and income-tax repayments needing investigation. IDRS replaced it from August 2023. Official sources describe data analytics and risk rules, not AI.",
            "replication": {
              "produced_by": [
                "Linking of bank, marketplace, land-registry and other data to taxpayer records",
                "Risk rules and scorecards feeding compliance cases to about 4,300 staff",
                "Upstream risking of VAT and Self Assessment repayment claims (TRUCE, then IDRS)"
              ],
              "must_hold": [
                "Legal gateways to third-party data",
                "Staff capacity to work cases generated by the system",
                "Governance of risk rules, which the C&AG reviews annually"
              ],
              "echoes": [
                {
                  "date": "2023-08-01",
                  "setting": "TRUCE replaced by IDRS for VAT repayments from August 2023, Self Assessment migrated May 2024 (C&AG report; month only)",
                  "outcome": "unknown",
                  "source": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687e5d318adf4250705c96d8/HMRC_annual_report_and_accounts_2024_to_2025.pdf"
                },
                {
                  "date": "2025-03-31",
                  "setting": "Average annual yield £3.4bn from Connect cases over the period covered by the FOI response (Pinsent Masons, 8 October 2025)",
                  "outcome": "recurred",
                  "source": "https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/hmrc-big-data-tax-revenue-boost-4-6-billion"
                }
              ]
            }
          }
        },
        "provenance": {
          "kind": "legacy_record",
          "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.",
          "record_fields": [
            "account",
            "replication"
          ],
          "source_refs": []
        },
        "review_state": "record_mapped",
        "coverage": "partial"
      }
    },
    "summary": {
      "total": 91,
      "addressed": 91,
      "known": 29,
      "reviewed": 0,
      "record_mapped": 29,
      "not_assessed": 62,
      "complete": false,
      "by_state": {
        "value_present": 29,
        "not_reported": 0,
        "unresolved": 0,
        "not_assessed": 62,
        "not_applicable": 0,
        "withheld": 0,
        "source_unavailable": 0
      }
    }
  }
}
