{ "id": "AIBD-0143", "title": "ECMWF's AIFS Single became the first operational machine-learning global forecast model on 25 February 2025", "summary": "ECMWF's AIFS Single became operational 25 February 2025; ECMWF reports 5–15% lower errors than IFS; no specific event documented.", "date_observed": "2025-02-25", "date_basis": "unassessed", "date_precision": "unassessed", "benefit_status": null, "source_collection": null, "source_entry": null, "account": "ECMWF announced that on 25 February 2025 it began producing operational forecasts with AIFS Single, the deterministic version of its Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System. It claimed tropical cyclone track gains of up to 20%. ECMWF's evaluation of 2025 forecasts (8 May 2026) reports AIFS errors 5 to 15% lower than the IFS for most surface and upper-air variables. Cyclone position was substantially better but intensity under-predicted. NHC's Science Operations Officer said ECMWF's AI-driven global system was available for evaluation at NHC during the 2025 season. No specific event in which AIFS beat the IFS is documented in the ECMWF cited sources. The Severe Event Catalog page for Storm Eowyn states wind gusts were not available for AIFS.", "category": "general benefit", "unexpected": false, "purpose": "Operational data-driven global medium-range weather forecasting at ECMWF, run alongside the physics-based IFS.", "system": "ECMWF Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS)", "model_version": "AIFS Single v1 (operational from 25 February 2025)", "developer": "ECMWF", "deployer": "ECMWF", "location": "Reading, United Kingdom", "domain": "Weather forecasting", "segment": "Public-sector meteorological service", "benefit_type": "Improved Task Accuracy", "taxonomy_note": null, "registry_ids": {}, "ratings": [ { "group": "personal", "depth": null, "reason": "Aggregate skill statistics, no discrete event." }, { "group": "organizational", "depth": null, "reason": "Aggregate skill statistics, no discrete event." }, { "group": "societal", "depth": null, "reason": "Aggregate skill statistics, no discrete event." } ], "ai_role": { "status": "assessed", "statement": "ECMWF's verification compares AIFS directly with the IFS. The only non-ECMWF cited source (NWS Q&A) confirms NHC evaluated ECMWF's AI system in 2025 but states no performance result. ECMWF is both the developer and the deployer, so its evaluations are the body reporting on its own system." }, "evidence": [ { "kind": "press release", "citation": "ECMWF (2025). ECMWF's AI forecasts become operational. ECMWF news, 25 February 2025.", "title": "ECMWF's AI forecasts become operational", "url": "https://www.ecmwf.int/node/29308", "date": "2025-02-25", "written_by": "makers", "quote": "The AIFS outperforms state-of-the-art physics-based models for many measures" }, { "kind": "press release", "citation": "ECMWF (2026). 2025 forecast evaluation met with positive feedback. ECMWF news, 8 May 2026.", "title": "2025 forecast evaluation met with positive feedback", "url": "https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/2025-forecast-evaluation", "date": "2026-05-08", "written_by": "makers", "quote": "the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) is outperforming the IFS for most surface and upper-air variables, with errors 5 to 15% lower in the medium range" }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "Haiden, T., Chevallier, M. (2026). Forecast performance 2025. ECMWF Newsletter No. 187, May 2026.", "title": "Forecast performance 2025", "url": "https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/187/news/forecast-performance-2025", "date": "2026-05-01", "written_by": "makers", "quote": "Tropical cyclone (TC) position errors are reduced substantially in the AIFS compared to the IFS, whereas TC intensity errors are generally larger due to a weak-intensity bias." }, { "kind": "report", "citation": "National Weather Service (n.d.). AI in Hurricane Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center: A Q&A with NHC Science Operation Officer Wallace Hogsett. NOAA/NWS.", "title": "AI in Hurricane Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center", "url": "https://www.weather.gov/news/261102-AI-Hurricane-Forecasting", "date": null, "written_by": "independent", "quote": "the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have developed AI-driven global forecast systems, both of which were also available for evaluation during the 2025 season" }, { "kind": "other", "citation": "ECMWF Forecast User wiki (2025). Severe Event Catalogue: 202501 - Windstorm - Eowyn.", "title": "202501 - Windstorm - Eowyn", "url": "https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/202501+-+Windstorm+-+Eowyn", "date": null, "written_by": "makers", "quote": "Wind gusts not available for AIFS" }, { "kind": "preprint", "citation": "Allen, A., Bruinsma, W. P., Maier-Gerber, M., Cook, H., Chantry, M., Turner, R. E. (2026). AIFS-TC: A simple correction competitive with the operational frontier for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. arXiv:2608.09959.", "title": "AIFS-TC: A simple correction competitive with the operational frontier for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09959", "date": "2026-07-24", "written_by": "makers", "quote": "While these models have been shown to achieve superior performance to physics-based NWP in forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, they tend to dramatically underestimate intensity." } ], "replication": { "produced_by": [ "Operational twice-daily AIFS Single runs initialized from ECMWF analyses", "ECMWF's standard headline-score and tropical cyclone verification against the IFS" ], "must_hold": [ "Intensity under-prediction persists per ECMWF and the AIFS-TC preprint", "No ECMWF-documented named event where AIFS beat the IFS was found. Event-level superiority remains unverified" ], "echoes": [ { "date": "2026-05-01", "setting": "ECMWF Newsletter 187, 2025 forecast performance (AIFS Single and AIFS ENS versus IFS)", "model_version": "AIFS Single v1; AIFS ENS v1", "outcome": "recurred", "source": "https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/187/news/forecast-performance-2025" }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "setting": "AIFS-TC preprint (partly ECMWF-authored): track superiority restated, intensity weakness corrected by post-processing", "model_version": "AIFS Single", "outcome": "recurred", "source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09959" } ] }, "paired_incident": null, "headline": "ECMWF's AIFS Single goes operational with 5–15% lower errors", "metric": "5–15% lower errors than IFS", "comparator": { "against": "ECMWF's physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)", "before": null, "after": "errors 5 to 15% lower in the medium range (out to 15 days)", "basis": "measured", "quote": "Current assessments show that the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) is outperforming the IFS for most surface and upper-air variables, with errors 5 to 15% lower in the medium range (out to 15 days).", "url": "https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/2025-forecast-evaluation" }, "later": { "status": "scaled", "date": "2025-07-01", "note": "ECMWF launched the ensemble version, AIFS-ENS, operationally on 1 July 2025, and its 2025 evaluation (May 2026) reports both AIFS Single and AIFS ENS beating the IFS on most parameters.", "quote": "On 25 February 2025, the machine-learning (ML) model AIFS Single v1 was implemented, followed by the operational launch of AIFS-ENS on 1 July 2025.", "url": "https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/187/news/forecast-performance-2025" }, "value": null, "developer_country": "United Kingdom", "deployer_country": "United Kingdom", "unrated_because": null, "brief_notes": null, "brief": null, "revisions": [ { "date": "2026-10-20", "change": "Record drafted from the cited sources.", "source": null, "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Benefit type set to Improved Task Accuracy under Trustible's full taxonomy of 23 types; it was Improved Organizational Efficiency among the six first used.", "source": "https://trustible.ai/post/a-framework-for-measuring-the-benefits-of-ai/", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Added what the benefit is measured against, what happened since from the cited sources.", "source": "https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/2025-forecast-evaluation; https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/187/news/forecast-performance-2025", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Country of the developer and the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Centre_for_Medium-Range_Weather_Forecasts; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Centre_for_Medium-Range_Weather_Forecasts", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Prose pass: account, the replication conditions, the system's part rewritten in shorter sentences with abbreviations expanded; facts, figures and quotations unchanged.", "source": null, "editor": "AIBD" } ], "confidence": "studied", "shade": "high", "claim_status": "Independently studied", "claim_basis": "Sources: one independent report, the makers' report, the makers' preprint, two press releases from the makers and the makers' other. 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