{ "id": "AIBD-0103", "title": "BirdCast forecast alerts underpin Houston's Lights Out Nights proclamation", "summary": "Houston Audubon issues Lights Out alerts from BirdCast forecasts; City of Houston proclaimed Lights Out Nights on 9 April 2021.", "date_observed": "2021-04-09", "date_basis": "unassessed", "date_precision": "unassessed", "benefit_status": null, "source_collection": null, "source_entry": null, "account": "BirdCast is produced by the Cornell Lab of Ornithology with Colorado State University and now Purdue University and the University of Illinois. It forecasts nocturnal bird migration from a model trained on 23 years of weather-radar bird detections and reanalysis weather data. Houston Audubon states its staff use the BirdCast forecast maps to track migration predictions. They issue Lights Out Action Alerts when a chance of high migration coincides with weather events. Alerts ask residents and businesses to turn off nonessential lights from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. during spring and fall migration. On 9 April 2021 the City of Houston proclaimed “Lights Out Nights” to help migrating birds. No Houston collision reduction is documented. A separate 21-year Chicago study co-authored by BirdCast scientists estimated halving lighted window area cuts collisions 11-fold in spring and 6-fold in fall.", "category": "protective response", "unexpected": false, "purpose": "Forecast nightly bird migration intensity from weather radar and weather models so that cities, building owners and residents can reduce lighting on high-migration nights.", "system": "BirdCast migration forecast model and Lights Out Action Alerts", "model_version": null, "developer": "Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Colorado State University (forecasts now produced with Purdue University and University of Illinois)", "deployer": "Houston Audubon (Birds Houston) and City of Houston", "location": "Houston, United States", "domain": "Conservation and biodiversity", "segment": "Migratory bird collision prevention / urban lighting policy", "benefit_type": "Improved Environmental Sustainability", "taxonomy_note": null, "registry_ids": {}, "ratings": [ { "group": "personal", "depth": null, "reason": "Residents and building managers receive timed alerts, but no individual outcome is documented." }, { "group": "organizational", "depth": 1, "reason": "A municipal proclamation and partner alert program were adopted; the partner page reports no measured change in collisions at Houston buildings." }, { "group": "societal", "depth": null, "reason": "The collision evidence is a Chicago study co-authored by BirdCast scientists; Houston's own collision change is unmeasured." } ], "ai_role": { "status": "assessed", "statement": "The learned forecast model identifies the nights on which alerts are issued. The proclamation and alert program are documented by the operating partner, not the model's makers. The collision-reduction evidence comes from a separate Chicago study co-authored by BirdCast scientists and is not specific to Houston. The counterfactual for Houston is unproven." }, "evidence": [ { "kind": "press release", "citation": "Houston Audubon / Birds Houston (n.d.). Lights Out for Birds. birdshouston.org.", "title": "Lights Out for Birds", "url": "https://birdshouston.org/conservation/lights-out.html", "date": null, "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "April 9, 2021: City of Houston proclaims 'Lights Out Nights' in Houston to help migrating birds traveling through the region" }, { "kind": "press release", "citation": "Houston Audubon / Birds Houston (n.d.). Lights Out for Birds. birdshouston.org.", "title": "Lights Out for Birds", "url": "https://birdshouston.org/conservation/lights-out.html", "date": null, "written_by": "deployer", "quote": "our staff were able to track migration predictions for the region and issue alerts to the community when a chance of high migration coincided with weather events" }, { "kind": "press release", "citation": "BirdCast (n.d.). Migration forecast maps. birdcast.org.", "title": "Migration forecast maps", "url": "https://birdcast.org/migration-tools/migration-forecast-maps/", "date": null, "written_by": "makers", "quote": "By learning associations between weather variables and migration, we can use the model to predict a bird migration intensity given a particular weather forecast." }, { "kind": "peer-reviewed study", "citation": "Van Doren, B. M., Willard, D. E., Hennen, M., Horton, K. G., et al. (2021). Drivers of fatal bird collisions in an urban center. PNAS 118(24).", "title": "Drivers of fatal bird collisions in an urban center", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8214683/", "date": "2021-06-07", "written_by": "makers", "quote": "We estimate that halving lighted window area decreases collision counts by 11× in spring and 6× in fall." } ], "replication": { "produced_by": [ "Continental weather-radar archive to train the forecast", "A local partner that translates forecasts into alerts", "Municipal endorsement of lights-out practice" ], "must_hold": [ "Forecast skill on peak nights", "Building managers actually act on alerts", "Monitoring to measure collisions before and after" ], "echoes": [ { "date": "2026-08-27", "setting": "City of Raleigh joins Lights Out; lights off 11 p.m.–6 a.m. on a seasonal schedule, BirdCast referenced as a resource", "model_version": null, "outcome": "unknown", "source": "https://raleighnc.gov/climate-action-and-sustainability/news/raleigh-joins-lights-out-bird-migration" } ] }, "paired_incident": null, "headline": "BirdCast forecasts underpin Houston's Lights Out Nights", "metric": null, "comparator": null, "later": { "status": "scaled", "date": "2022-04-17", "note": "Birds Houston's program timeline records Houston-area cities jointly asking businesses and residents to go Lights Out for birds in April 2022 and a statewide Lights Out gathering at Texas A&M University in August 2023.", "quote": "April 9, 2021: City of Houston proclaims \"Lights Out Nights\" in Houston April 17, 2022: Houston-area cities ask businesses and residents to go 'Lights Out' for birds August 25th, 2023: State-wide Gathering and Lights Out Exhibit at Texas A&M University", "url": "https://birdshouston.org/conservation/lights-out.html" }, "value": null, "developer_country": "United States", "deployer_country": "United States", "unrated_because": null, "brief_notes": null, "brief": null, "revisions": [ { "date": "2026-10-20", "change": "Record drafted from the cited sources.", "source": null, "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "change": "Reworded the account so that Houston Audubon's alerts go out when a chance of high migration coincides with weather events, as its page says, and described the Chicago collision study as co-authored by BirdCast scientists rather than independent, matching the PNAS author affiliations and the record's own authorship marking.", "source": "https://birdshouston.org/conservation/lights-out.html; https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8214683/", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Added what happened since from the cited sources.", "source": "https://birdshouston.org/conservation/lights-out.html", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Country of the developer and the deployer added from the organization's own site or a registry.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornell_Lab_of_Ornithology; https://birdshouston.org/", "editor": "AIBD" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "change": "Prose pass: account, the system's part rewritten in shorter sentences with abbreviations expanded; facts, figures and quotations unchanged.", "source": null, "editor": "AIBD" } ], "confidence": "claimed", "shade": "low", "claim_status": "The deployer's account", "claim_basis": "Sources: the makers' peer-reviewed study, the makers' press release and the deployer's press release. The cited evidence includes no independent source and no finding by a regulator or court.", "profile": { "case_id": "AIBD-0103", "catalog_version": "1.0.0", "source_fingerprint": "64721b437e1ee54d480ed358ebeb277ab8816c11ea5d66523e905862833fdcff", "collection_refs": [ { "collection_id": "aibd", "version": "snapshot-8bf7cfec9cb185aa" }, { "collection_id": "aibd", "version": "2026-10-25" }, { "collection_id": "adyt", "version": "2026-10-25" } ], "source_ids": [ "AIBD-0103-source-0001", "AIBD-0103-source-0002", "AIBD-0103-source-0003", "AIBD-0103-source-0004" ], "families": { "strategic assessments": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "record_ids": [] }, "evaluations": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "record_ids": [] }, "monetary observations": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "record_ids": [] }, "institutional decisions": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial", "record_ids": [] } }, "fields": { "actors[]": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "developer": "Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Colorado State University (forecasts now produced with Purdue University and University of Illinois)", "deployer": "Houston Audubon (Birds Houston) and City of Houston" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "developer", "deployer" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "actors[].ownership_control": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "ai_contribution": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "ai_role": { "status": "assessed", "statement": "The learned forecast model identifies the nights on which alerts are issued. The proclamation and alert program are documented by the operating partner, not the model's makers. The collision-reduction evidence comes from a separate Chicago study co-authored by BirdCast scientists and is not specific to Houston. The counterfactual for Houston is unproven." } } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "ai_role" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "ai_relationship": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "category": "protective response", "ai_role": { "status": "assessed", "statement": "The learned forecast model identifies the nights on which alerts are issued. The proclamation and alert program are documented by the operating partner, not the model's makers. The collision-reduction evidence comes from a separate Chicago study co-authored by BirdCast scientists and is not specific to Houston. 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"https://birdshouston.org/conservation/lights-out.html" } } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "later" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "human_oversight": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "id": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "id": "AIBD-0103" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "id" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "infrastructure_dependencies[]": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].beneficiaries": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, 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It forecasts nocturnal bird migration from a model trained on 23 years of weather-radar bird detections and reanalysis weather data. Houston Audubon states its staff use the BirdCast forecast maps to track migration predictions. They issue Lights Out Action Alerts when a chance of high migration coincides with weather events. Alerts ask residents and businesses to turn off nonessential lights from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. during spring and fall migration. On 9 April 2021 the City of Houston proclaimed “Lights Out Nights” to help migrating birds. No Houston collision reduction is documented. A separate 21-year Chicago study co-authored by BirdCast scientists estimated halving lighted window area cuts collisions 11-fold in spring and 6-fold in fall.", "benefit_type": "Improved Environmental Sustainability" } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "account", "benefit_type" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].distribution": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].duration": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].id": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].stakeholder_group": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "ratings": [ { "group": "personal", "reason": "Residents and building managers receive timed alerts, but no individual outcome is documented." }, { "group": "organizational", "depth": 1, "reason": "A municipal proclamation and partner alert program were adopted; the partner page reports no measured change in collisions at Houston buildings." }, { "group": "societal", "reason": "The collision evidence is a Chicago study co-authored by BirdCast scientists; Houston's own collision change is unmeasured." } ] } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "ratings" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].status": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].tradeoffs": { "state": "not_assessed", "review_state": "not_assessed", "coverage": "partial" }, "outcomes[].unexpected": { "state": "value_present", "value": { "kind": "record_fields", "fields": { "unexpected": false, "purpose": "Forecast nightly bird migration intensity from weather radar and weather models so that cities, building owners and residents can reduce lighting on high-migration nights." } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; 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It forecasts nocturnal bird migration from a model trained on 23 years of weather-radar bird detections and reanalysis weather data. Houston Audubon states its staff use the BirdCast forecast maps to track migration predictions. They issue Lights Out Action Alerts when a chance of high migration coincides with weather events. Alerts ask residents and businesses to turn off nonessential lights from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. during spring and fall migration. On 9 April 2021 the City of Houston proclaimed “Lights Out Nights” to help migrating birds. No Houston collision reduction is documented. A separate 21-year Chicago study co-authored by BirdCast scientists estimated halving lighted window area cuts collisions 11-fold in spring and 6-fold in fall.", "replication": { "produced_by": [ "Continental weather-radar archive to train the forecast", "A local partner that translates forecasts into alerts", "Municipal endorsement of lights-out practice" ], "must_hold": [ "Forecast skill on peak nights", "Building managers actually act on alerts", "Monitoring to measure collisions before and after" ], "echoes": [ { "date": "2026-08-27", "setting": "City of Raleigh joins Lights Out; lights off 11 p.m.–6 a.m. on a seasonal schedule, BirdCast referenced as a resource", "outcome": "unknown", "source": "https://raleighnc.gov/climate-action-and-sustainability/news/raleigh-joins-lights-out-bird-migration" } ] } } }, "provenance": { "kind": "legacy_record", "basis": "Preserved from the existing AIBD record; external sources were not rechecked.", "record_fields": [ "account", "replication" ], "source_refs": [] }, "review_state": "record_mapped", "coverage": "partial" } }, "summary": { "total": 91, "addressed": 91, "known": 29, "reviewed": 0, "record_mapped": 29, "not_assessed": 62, "complete": false, "by_state": { "value_present": 29, "not_reported": 0, "unresolved": 0, "not_assessed": 62, "not_applicable": 0, "withheld": 0, "source_unavailable": 0 } } } }